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Oil (palm) in Kobero

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,105–11,175

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,843–12,099

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,105 and 11,175 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,843 and 12,099 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kobero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,105 and 11,175 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,843 and 12,099 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 19,945); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,315–10,219 9,000 7,924–10,753 10,598 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,054–10,291 8,880 7,630–12,008 10,187 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,105–11,175 8,856 6,993–16,105 9,970 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,994–11,414 8,847 7,047–16,203 9,980 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,843–12,099 8,876 6,748–19,945 10,068 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,250
Jun 202610,021
May 20269,990
Apr 20269,208
Mar 20269,249
Feb 20269,000
Jan 20269,167
Dec 20259,250
Nov 202510,268
Oct 202510,778
Sept 202510,696
Aug 202511,200
Jul 202512,000
Jun 202511,000
May 202510,833
Apr 202510,620
Mar 202510,074
Feb 20258,421
Jan 20257,265
Dec 20246,479
Nov 20245,912
Oct 20245,794
Sept 20246,194
Aug 20246,425
Jul 20246,375
Jun 20246,400
May 20245,933
Apr 20245,550
Mar 20245,156
Feb 20245,870
Jan 20245,428
Nov 20235,425
Oct 20235,825
Sept 20236,269
Aug 20236,200
Jul 20235,783
Jun 20235,575
May 20235,461
Apr 20235,038
Mar 20234,975
Feb 20234,500
Dec 20224,115
Nov 20224,200
Oct 20224,375
Sept 20224,275
Aug 20224,500
May 20224,453
Apr 20224,231
Mar 20223,755
Feb 20223,475
Jan 20223,400
Oct 20213,750
Apr 20212,900
Mar 20212,550
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,500
Dec 20202,450
Nov 20202,342
Oct 20202,545
Sept 20202,635
Aug 20202,550
Jul 20202,433
Jun 20202,500
Mar 20202,415
Feb 20202,433
Jan 20202,475
Dec 20192,680
Nov 20192,620
Oct 20192,267
Sept 20192,417
Aug 20192,850
Jul 20192,700
Jun 20192,833
May 20192,780
Mar 20192,450
Feb 20192,357
Jan 20192,400
Dec 20182,350
Nov 20182,450
Oct 20182,650
Sept 20182,820
Aug 20182,960
Jul 20183,133
Jun 20183,080
May 20182,880

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2473-62-retail-kg.