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Cassava flour in Kobero

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,322–2,108

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,387–2,329

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,322 and 2,108 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,387 and 2,329 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kobero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,322 and 2,108 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,387 and 2,329 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,305); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,396–1,807 1,598 1,292–1,966 1,742 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,347–1,905 1,610 1,191–2,130 1,665 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,322–2,108 1,628 1,263–2,635 1,784 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,269–2,149 1,596 1,183–3,305 1,633 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,387–2,329 1,683 1,280–3,181 1,836 –
Price history (115 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,625
Jun 20261,708
May 20261,694
Apr 20261,708
Mar 20261,560
Feb 20261,560
Jan 20261,694
Dec 20251,517
Nov 20251,683
Oct 20251,530
Sept 20251,596
Aug 20251,800
Jul 20251,900
Jun 20251,833
May 20251,667
Apr 20251,598
Mar 20251,497
Feb 20251,473
Jan 20251,490
Dec 20241,484
Nov 20241,685
Oct 20241,496
Sept 20241,556
Aug 20241,550
Jul 20241,625
Jun 20241,600
May 20241,625
Apr 20241,775
Mar 20241,659
Feb 20241,732
Jan 20241,789
Nov 20231,650
Oct 20231,644
Sept 20231,546
Aug 20231,450
Jul 20231,800
Jun 20231,900
May 20232,072
Apr 20232,012
Mar 20231,800
Feb 20231,492
Dec 20221,264
Nov 20221,200
Oct 20221,100
Sept 20221,050
Aug 20221,067
May 20221,067
Apr 20221,246
Mar 2022982
Feb 2022912
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021800
Apr 20211,100
Mar 2021950
Feb 20211,017
Jan 20211,025
Dec 2020950
Nov 2020792
Oct 2020782
Sept 2020606
Aug 2020700
Jul 2020783
Jun 2020812
Mar 2020622
Feb 2020633
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019550
Oct 2019442
Aug 2019480
Jul 2019456
Jun 2019533
May 2019460
Mar 2019433
Feb 2019593
Jan 2019483
Dec 2018433
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018433
Sept 2018410
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018680
May 2018720
Aug 20171,250
Jul 20171,275
Jun 20171,225
May 20171,283
Apr 20171,275
Mar 20171,216
Feb 20171,200
Oct 2016767
Sept 2016800
Aug 2016800
Jul 2016720
Jun 2016792
May 2016800
Apr 2016700
Mar 2016742
Feb 2016750
Jan 2016760
Dec 2015692
Nov 2015653
Oct 2015492
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015575
Jun 2015567
May 2015580
Apr 2015584
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015508
Jan 2015533
Dec 2014558
Nov 2014567
Oct 2014454

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2473-74-retail-kg.