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Oil (vegetable) in Kobero

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,394–20,819

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,622–21,718

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,394 and 20,819 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,622 and 21,718 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kobero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,394 and 20,819 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,622 and 21,718 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 28,718); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,545–18,571 16,285 13,206–19,785 19,014 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,768–18,742 15,685 13,038–22,564 17,456 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,394–20,819 16,123 11,934–26,705 19,009 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,830–21,726 16,207 12,023–28,718 19,931 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,622–21,718 16,372 13,111–27,947 20,237 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,750
Jun 202615,889
May 202616,208
Apr 202616,667
Mar 202614,484
Feb 202614,850
Jan 202615,722
Dec 202515,167
Nov 202516,029
Oct 202517,122
Sept 202517,717
Aug 202517,200
Jul 202519,000
Jun 202518,000
May 202516,750
Apr 202517,778
Mar 202517,941
Feb 202517,060
Jan 202515,294
Dec 202414,183
Nov 202413,324
Oct 202411,594
Sept 202413,031
Aug 202411,875
Jul 202410,500
Jun 202412,000
May 202410,792
Apr 20249,000
Mar 20249,176
Feb 20249,417
Jan 20249,000
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20239,000
Aug 20239,000
Jul 20239,167
Jun 20239,000
May 20239,889
Apr 20238,750
Mar 20239,167
Feb 20238,292
Dec 20228,394
Nov 20228,912
Oct 20227,875
Sept 20229,000
Aug 20228,333
May 20227,000
Apr 20228,077
Mar 20228,425
Feb 20228,250
Jan 20227,500
Oct 20215,250
Apr 20215,250
Mar 20215,600
Feb 20215,000
Jan 20216,000
Dec 20205,000
Nov 20204,333
Oct 20203,200
Sept 20204,291
Aug 20204,100
Jul 20204,208
Jun 20205,050
Mar 20204,361
Feb 20203,967
Jan 20204,050
Dec 20194,380
Nov 20194,040
Oct 20193,983
Sept 20193,817
Aug 20194,033
Jul 20194,050
Jun 20193,900
May 20194,060
Mar 20193,717
Feb 20194,857
Jan 20193,783
Dec 20184,000
Nov 20183,975
Oct 20184,183
Sept 20183,900
Aug 20184,040
Jul 20183,583
Jun 20183,740
May 20183,900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2473-96-retail-kg.