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Food basket in Kobero

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,770–39,471

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,461–43,796

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,058 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,770 and 39,471 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,461 and 43,796 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kobero: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,058 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,770 and 39,471 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,461 and 43,796 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 57,670); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,297–34,366 30,940 26,939–36,763
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 27,740–35,963 31,249 25,615–40,244
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,770–39,471 32,130 26,137–45,972
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,617–41,513 31,755 24,872–53,879
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,461–43,796 32,589 25,867–57,670
Cost history (83 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202631,058
Jun 202632,139
May 202633,612
Apr 202634,804
Mar 202630,158
Feb 202630,105
Jan 202631,458
Dec 202529,083
Nov 202532,020
Oct 202530,970
Sept 202531,403
Aug 202533,828
Jul 202536,030
Jun 202534,480
May 202533,625
Apr 202532,689
Mar 202531,110
Feb 202528,916
Jan 202529,442
Dec 202428,924
Nov 202430,497
Oct 202427,651
Sept 202428,191
Aug 202427,938
Jul 202427,994
Jun 202427,711
May 202427,734
Apr 202429,494
Mar 202427,519
Feb 202428,873
Jan 202429,232
Nov 202327,773
Oct 202329,099
Sept 202327,629
Aug 202326,088
Jul 202329,280
Jun 202330,157
May 202334,415
Apr 202333,858
Mar 202330,673
Feb 202326,075
Dec 202221,734
Nov 202221,258
Oct 202219,729
Sept 202218,565
Aug 202218,425
May 202218,861
Apr 202221,016
Mar 202216,257
Feb 202215,035
Jan 202216,986
Oct 202113,898
Apr 202117,046
Mar 202114,960
Feb 202116,055
Jan 202115,825
Dec 202015,790
Nov 202013,786
Oct 202013,838
Sept 202011,604
Aug 202012,410
Jul 202013,149
Jun 202013,208
Mar 202011,280
Feb 202010,989
Jan 202010,910
Dec 201910,609
Oct 20198,866
Aug 20199,490
Jul 20199,282
Jun 20199,675
May 20199,202
Mar 20198,510
Feb 201910,631
Jan 20198,881
Dec 20188,861
Nov 20188,156
Oct 20188,708
Sept 20188,342
Aug 20189,464
Jul 201811,297
Jun 201811,563
May 201811,923

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620