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Oil (palm) in Makamba

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,310–10,318

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,492–12,128

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,310 and 10,318 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,492 and 12,128 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Makamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,310 and 10,318 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,492 and 12,128 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 17,446); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,876–9,928 8,700 7,186–10,078 10,114 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,204–9,906 8,433 6,743–10,487 9,253 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,310–10,318 8,499 6,704–11,396 9,260 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,451–11,001 8,662 6,582–13,277 9,668 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,492–12,128 9,012 6,521–17,446 10,786 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jun 20269,111
May 20269,875
Apr 20269,000
Mar 202610,490
Feb 20269,000
Jan 20268,971
Dec 20258,700
Nov 20259,135
Oct 20258,510
Sept 20259,422
Aug 202510,000
Jul 202510,949
Jun 202510,156
May 202510,088
Apr 202511,167
Mar 20259,833
Feb 20259,020
Jan 20258,681
Dec 20246,152
Nov 20245,533
Oct 20245,445
Sept 20245,670
Aug 20246,042
Jul 20246,206
Jun 20246,194
May 20246,200
Apr 20245,850
Mar 20245,476
Feb 20245,302
Jan 20245,556
Dec 20235,667
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20235,946
Sept 20235,908
Aug 20236,176
Jul 20236,023
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,547
Apr 20235,000
Mar 20234,860
Feb 20234,441
Dec 20224,088
Nov 20224,090
Oct 20224,056
Sept 20224,679
Aug 20225,010
Jul 20225,000
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,602
Apr 20224,067
Mar 20224,125
Feb 20223,413
Jan 20223,747
Oct 20213,550
May 20212,633
Apr 20212,517
Mar 20212,458
Feb 20212,383
Jan 20212,333
Dec 20202,250
Nov 20202,044
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20202,161
Aug 20202,353
Jul 20202,428
Jun 20202,400
Mar 20202,417
Feb 20202,383
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,333
Nov 20192,167
Oct 20192,100
Sept 20192,133
Aug 20192,767
Jul 20192,800
Jun 20192,800
May 20192,567
Mar 20192,267
Feb 20192,233
Jan 20191,967
Dec 20181,971
Nov 20181,883
Oct 20181,860
Sept 20182,583
Aug 20182,943
Jul 20183,040
Jun 20183,100
May 20182,720
Jan 20182,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2474-62-retail-kg.