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Cassava flour in Makamba

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,315–1,958

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,348–2,225

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,315 and 1,958 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,348 and 2,225 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Makamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,315 and 1,958 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,348 and 2,225 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,857); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,358–1,708 1,501 1,272–1,779 1,826 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,332–1,755 1,496 1,199–1,966 1,715 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,315–1,958 1,517 1,250–2,383 1,984 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,326–2,060 1,545 1,200–2,495 1,886 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,348–2,225 1,567 1,184–2,857 1,893 –
Price history (126 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,500
Jun 20261,500
May 20261,538
Apr 20261,600
Mar 20261,860
Feb 20261,786
Jan 20261,709
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,521
Oct 20251,549
Sept 20251,566
Aug 20251,500
Jul 20251,569
Jun 20251,795
May 20251,832
Apr 20251,765
Mar 20251,529
Feb 20251,514
Jan 20251,494
Dec 20241,567
Nov 20241,581
Oct 20241,516
Sept 20241,434
Aug 20241,440
Jul 20241,496
Jun 20241,617
May 20241,633
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,893
Feb 20241,874
Jan 20241,600
Dec 20231,933
Nov 20231,850
Oct 20231,812
Sept 20231,864
Aug 20231,709
Jul 20231,795
Jun 20231,844
May 20232,041
Apr 20232,178
Mar 20232,182
Feb 20231,919
Dec 20221,479
Nov 20221,360
Oct 20221,153
Sept 20221,125
Aug 20221,083
Jul 20221,100
Jun 20221,100
May 20221,127
Apr 20221,100
Mar 20221,200
Feb 20221,154
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021950
May 2021967
Apr 2021965
Mar 2021900
Feb 2021900
Jan 2021917
Dec 2020862
Nov 2020825
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020664
Aug 2020628
Jul 2020639
Jun 2020600
Mar 2020642
Feb 2020583
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019592
Oct 2019490
Aug 2019458
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019567
May 2019492
Mar 2019533
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019542
Dec 2018571
Nov 2018542
Oct 2018470
Sept 2018525
Aug 2018529
Jul 2018610
Jun 2018736
May 2018710
Jan 20181,000
Nov 20171,008
Oct 20171,022
Sept 20171,034
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,040
Jun 20171,075
May 20171,150
Apr 20171,100
Mar 20171,084
Feb 20171,071
Jan 2017967
Dec 2016992
Nov 2016862
Oct 2016771
Sept 2016712
Aug 2016700
Jul 2016667
Jun 2016671
May 2016683
Apr 2016629
Mar 2016867
Feb 2016688
Jan 2016673
Dec 2015592
Nov 2015543
Oct 2015471
Sept 2015442
Aug 2015457
Jul 2015484
Jun 2015500
May 2015530
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2474-74-retail-kg.