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Oil (vegetable) in Makamba

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,745–18,927

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,441–19,850

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,745 and 18,927 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,441 and 19,850 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Makamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,745 and 18,927 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,441 and 19,850 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,616–17,458 15,203 12,732–18,694 17,933 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,455–18,020 15,295 12,334–20,714 18,021 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,745–18,927 15,439 12,012–22,145 17,683 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,578–19,530 15,455 11,786–20,507 18,249 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,441–19,850 15,506 11,934–22,957 19,532 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,667
Jun 202615,444
May 202617,167
Apr 202616,000
Mar 202614,497
Feb 202616,190
Jan 202616,765
Dec 202515,200
Nov 202517,125
Oct 202518,000
Sept 202515,594
Aug 202517,000
Jul 202518,000
Jun 202517,542
May 202516,735
Apr 202516,917
Mar 202514,854
Feb 202515,071
Jan 202513,944
Dec 202414,288
Nov 202412,646
Oct 202412,216
Sept 202413,177
Aug 202412,542
Jul 202412,176
Jun 202411,778
May 202410,667
Apr 20249,750
Mar 202410,495
Feb 20249,208
Jan 20249,667
Dec 20239,833
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,562
Sept 20239,910
Aug 202310,233
Jul 202310,636
Jun 202310,611
May 20239,765
Apr 202310,000
Mar 20239,831
Feb 20239,891
Dec 202210,045
Nov 20229,600
Oct 202210,029
Sept 202210,031
Aug 20229,927
Jul 202210,000
Jun 202210,000
May 202210,000
Apr 202210,000
Mar 20229,875
Feb 202210,090
Jan 202210,233
Oct 20219,250
May 20216,833
Apr 20216,479
Mar 20216,510
Feb 20216,167
Jan 20216,333
Dec 20206,000
Nov 20205,444
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,239
Aug 20205,217
Jul 20205,722
Jun 20206,333
Mar 20205,333
Feb 20205,333
Jan 20205,667
Dec 20195,417
Nov 20195,000
Oct 20195,083
Sept 20195,333
Aug 20195,033
Jul 20195,333
Jun 20195,333
May 20195,167
Mar 20195,000
Feb 20194,533
Jan 20195,167
Dec 20184,857
Nov 20185,333
Oct 20184,800
Sept 20185,250
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20184,900
Jun 20184,857
May 20185,200
Jan 20184,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2474-96-retail-kg.