Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Matana

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,903–10,733

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,536–11,092

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,903 and 10,733 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,536 and 11,092 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Matana: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,903 and 10,733 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,536 and 11,092 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,112–10,156 8,851 7,551–10,736 10,735 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,802–10,236 8,771 7,532–10,701 10,409 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,903–10,733 8,835 7,439–12,684 10,525 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,838–10,810 8,891 6,752–11,216 10,672 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,536–11,092 8,977 6,703–12,650 10,455 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,021
Jul 20268,500
Jun 20269,292
May 20269,417
Apr 20269,333
Mar 20269,744
Feb 20269,286
Jan 20269,529
Dec 202510,412
Nov 20259,562
Oct 20259,611
Sept 20259,667
Aug 202511,500
Jul 202512,000
Jun 202511,400
May 20259,529
Apr 20259,750
Mar 20259,729
Feb 20258,500
Jan 20257,039
Dec 20246,186
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,033
Aug 20246,500
Jul 20247,000
Jun 20246,219
May 20247,167
Apr 20245,875
Mar 20245,338
Feb 20246,236
Jan 20246,222
Dec 20236,167
Nov 20235,833
Oct 20236,093
Sept 20236,146
Aug 20236,333
Jul 20236,283
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,635
Apr 20235,250
Mar 20234,717
Feb 20235,042
Jan 20234,600
Dec 20224,606
Nov 20224,354
Oct 20224,719
Sept 20224,792
Aug 20224,500
Jul 20225,000
Jun 20223,500
May 20223,500
Apr 20223,500
Mar 20223,500
Feb 20223,000
Jan 20223,000
Oct 20213,500
Sept 20213,250
May 20212,700
Apr 20212,663
Mar 20212,475
Feb 20212,475
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,383
Nov 20202,425
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20202,137
Aug 20202,309
Jul 20202,347
Jun 20202,375
Mar 20202,257
Feb 20202,440
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,175
Nov 20192,338
Oct 20192,414
Sept 20192,733
Aug 20192,600
Jul 20192,467
Jun 20192,600
May 20192,817
Mar 20192,260
Feb 20192,417
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20182,083
Oct 20182,000
Sept 20182,200
Aug 20182,625
Jul 20182,633
Jun 20182,617
May 20182,440

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2475-62-retail-kg.