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Cassava flour in Matana

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,375–2,101

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,438–2,292

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,375 and 2,101 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,438 and 2,292 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Matana: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,375 and 2,101 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,438 and 2,292 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,487–1,872 1,656 1,320–1,983 2,127 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,401–1,939 1,603 1,175–2,322 1,765 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,375–2,101 1,639 1,194–2,429 2,039 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,392–2,199 1,654 1,167–2,721 1,975 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,438–2,292 1,753 1,227–2,496 2,127 –
Price history (125 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,608
Jul 20261,700
Jun 20261,835
May 20261,758
Apr 20261,567
Mar 20261,544
Feb 20261,717
Jan 20261,702
Dec 20251,632
Nov 20251,610
Oct 20251,664
Sept 20251,667
Aug 20251,667
Jul 20251,700
Jun 20251,673
May 20251,549
Apr 20251,804
Mar 20251,610
Feb 20251,519
Jan 20251,531
Dec 20241,555
Nov 20241,500
Oct 20241,500
Sept 20241,970
Aug 20241,900
Jul 20242,000
Jun 20242,219
May 20242,000
Apr 20242,000
Mar 20242,057
Feb 20242,478
Jan 20242,311
Dec 20232,200
Nov 20232,067
Oct 20232,071
Sept 20231,935
Aug 20232,027
Jul 20232,387
Jun 20232,264
May 20232,258
Apr 20232,133
Mar 20232,283
Feb 20232,058
Jan 20231,800
Dec 20221,579
Nov 20221,615
Oct 20221,542
Sept 20221,600
Aug 20221,550
Jul 20221,800
Jun 20221,500
May 20221,461
Apr 20221,500
Mar 20221,500
Feb 20221,500
Jan 20221,500
Oct 2021800
Sept 20211,150
May 2021967
Apr 2021991
Mar 2021950
Feb 2021900
Jan 2021812
Dec 2020750
Nov 2020700
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020700
Aug 2020700
Jul 2020700
Jun 2020650
Mar 2020724
Feb 2020730
Jan 2020692
Dec 2019667
Oct 2019527
Aug 2019530
Jul 2019527
Jun 2019567
May 2019683
Mar 2019620
Feb 2019627
Jan 2019592
Dec 2018583
Nov 2018617
Oct 2018567
Sept 2018567
Aug 2018575
Jul 2018750
Jun 2018700
May 2018960
Sept 20171,334
Aug 20171,367
Jul 20171,361
Jun 20171,233
Apr 20171,246
Mar 20171,222
Feb 20171,288
Jan 20171,200
Dec 20161,122
Nov 20161,108
Oct 2016908
Sept 2016850
Aug 2016804
Jul 2016817
Jun 2016758
May 2016890
Apr 2016948
Mar 2016846
Feb 2016908
Jan 2016780
Dec 2015721
Nov 2015643
Oct 2015546
Sept 2015492
Aug 2015493
Jul 2015675
Jun 2015796
May 2015837
Apr 2015821
Mar 2015644
Feb 2015642
Jan 2015644
Dec 2014700
Nov 2014675
Oct 2014658

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2475-74-retail-kg.