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Maize flour in Matana

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,025–2,695

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,950–2,881

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,025 and 2,695 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,950 and 2,881 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Matana: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,025 and 2,695 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,950 and 2,881 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,998–2,329 2,121 1,884–2,679 2,592 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,964–2,431 2,166 1,855–2,915 2,604 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,025–2,695 2,267 1,891–3,108 2,939 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,009–2,757 2,354 1,899–3,137 3,106 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,950–2,881 2,305 1,799–3,853 3,018 –
Price history (125 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,102
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20262,029
May 20261,917
Apr 20261,883
Mar 20262,088
Feb 20262,640
Jan 20262,602
Dec 20252,459
Nov 20252,412
Oct 20252,364
Sept 20252,300
Aug 20252,167
Jul 20252,233
Jun 20251,960
May 20251,953
Apr 20252,160
Mar 20252,135
Feb 20252,855
Jan 20253,100
Dec 20243,321
Nov 20242,969
Oct 20242,512
Sept 20242,400
Aug 20242,373
Jul 20242,125
Jun 20241,756
May 20241,800
Apr 20241,875
Mar 20241,908
Feb 20242,042
Jan 20242,167
Dec 20232,167
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20232,297
Sept 20232,204
Aug 20232,165
Jul 20232,287
Jun 20232,148
May 20231,810
Apr 20231,850
Mar 20232,317
Feb 20232,325
Jan 20232,300
Dec 20222,342
Nov 20222,285
Oct 20222,075
Sept 20221,900
Aug 20221,725
Jul 20221,600
Jun 20221,300
May 20221,261
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,250
Feb 20221,377
Jan 20221,481
Oct 20211,200
Sept 20211,150
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,000
Mar 20211,100
Feb 20211,200
Jan 20211,200
Dec 20201,200
Nov 20201,167
Oct 20201,100
Sept 20201,028
Aug 20201,022
Jul 2020988
Jun 2020938
Mar 2020912
Feb 20201,260
Jan 20201,450
Dec 20191,448
Oct 20191,161
Aug 20191,000
Jul 20191,152
Jun 2019767
May 2019842
Mar 2019980
Feb 2019900
Jan 2019983
Dec 2018975
Nov 2018908
Oct 2018800
Sept 2018800
Aug 2018800
Jul 2018808
Jun 2018800
May 2018760
Sept 20171,317
Aug 20171,333
Jul 20171,289
Jun 20171,208
Apr 20171,150
Mar 20171,312
Feb 20171,625
Jan 20171,383
Dec 20161,439
Nov 20161,296
Oct 20161,075
Sept 20161,000
Aug 2016966
Jul 2016840
Jun 2016704
May 2016694
Apr 2016754
Mar 2016825
Feb 2016997
Jan 20161,000
Dec 20151,033
Nov 2015920
Oct 2015800
Sept 2015778
Aug 2015790
Jul 2015700
Jun 2015712
May 2015791
Apr 2015698
Mar 2015666
Feb 2015646
Jan 2015719
Dec 2014716
Nov 2014713
Oct 2014707

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2475-76-retail-kg.