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Oil (vegetable) in Matana

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,840–17,883

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,370–19,109

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,840 and 17,883 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,370 and 19,109 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Matana: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,840 and 17,883 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,370 and 19,109 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,086–16,825 14,643 12,457–17,288 17,852 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,623–17,032 14,630 12,011–19,802 17,822 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,840–17,883 14,716 11,820–20,809 17,847 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,645–18,737 14,883 11,279–19,697 18,256 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,370–19,109 15,000 11,335–21,836 18,567 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,125
Jul 202614,750
Jun 202615,958
May 202615,583
Apr 202615,000
Mar 202613,917
Feb 202615,000
Jan 202615,647
Dec 202515,588
Nov 202516,417
Oct 202516,417
Sept 202517,500
Aug 202518,500
Jul 202517,667
Jun 202517,667
May 202518,020
Apr 202517,125
Mar 202517,396
Feb 202516,881
Jan 202515,588
Dec 202413,716
Nov 202413,688
Oct 202414,439
Sept 202414,950
Aug 202413,038
Jul 202411,250
Jun 202411,781
May 202411,417
Apr 20249,750
Mar 20249,471
Feb 202410,403
Jan 20249,389
Dec 20239,500
Nov 20238,667
Oct 20239,872
Sept 20239,688
Aug 20239,588
Jul 20239,217
Jun 20239,894
May 20239,125
Apr 20239,083
Mar 20239,000
Feb 20238,500
Jan 202310,333
Dec 202210,712
Nov 202210,427
Oct 202210,812
Sept 202210,375
Aug 202212,625
Jul 202212,500
Jun 20229,500
May 20229,306
Apr 20229,500
Mar 20229,375
Feb 20229,135
Jan 20229,438
Oct 20218,000
Sept 20217,000
May 20216,333
Apr 20216,272
Mar 20216,500
Feb 20216,500
Jan 20216,375
Dec 20206,500
Nov 20206,208
Oct 20205,500
Sept 20206,015
Aug 20205,969
Jul 20205,934
Jun 20206,000
Mar 20205,667
Feb 20205,500
Jan 20205,500
Dec 20195,875
Nov 20195,250
Oct 20194,929
Sept 20195,167
Aug 20195,250
Jul 20195,500
Jun 20195,667
May 20195,333
Mar 20196,000
Feb 20194,500
Jan 20195,833
Dec 20185,833
Nov 20186,250
Oct 20186,000
Sept 20185,833
Aug 20185,875
Jul 20185,500
Jun 20185,167
May 20185,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2475-96-retail-kg.