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Oil (palm) in Mihigo

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,060–10,887

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,797–12,060

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,060 and 10,887 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,797 and 12,060 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mihigo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,060 and 10,887 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,797 and 12,060 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,652); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,389–9,949 8,377 6,961–10,046 10,294 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,124–10,236 8,422 6,969–11,434 9,961 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,060–10,887 8,479 6,252–15,010 9,794 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,987–10,917 8,433 6,001–12,329 9,773 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,797–12,060 8,673 5,947–18,652 10,186 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,250
Jun 202610,000
May 20269,309
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20269,448
Feb 20269,481
Jan 20269,780
Dec 20259,792
Nov 202510,000
Oct 202511,206
Sept 202511,481
Aug 202511,500
Jul 202511,769
Jun 202511,500
May 202511,259
Apr 202511,000
Mar 202510,000
Feb 20258,328
Jan 20257,294
Dec 20246,300
Nov 20245,667
Oct 20245,271
Sept 20245,528
Aug 20245,738
Jul 20245,650
Jun 20245,917
May 20246,096
Apr 20245,000
Mar 20245,500
Feb 20245,333
Jan 20245,400
Nov 20235,816
Oct 20235,781
Sept 20235,833
Aug 20235,450
Jul 20235,425
Jun 20234,750
May 20234,650
Apr 20234,167
Mar 20234,548
Feb 20234,494
Dec 20224,085
Nov 20224,467
Oct 20224,462
Sept 20224,388
Aug 20224,800
May 20223,733
Apr 20223,850
Mar 20223,457
Feb 20223,725
Jan 20223,400
Oct 20213,100
May 20212,933
Apr 20212,688
Mar 20212,517
Feb 20212,367
Jan 20212,572
Dec 20202,333
Nov 20202,167
Sept 20202,300
Aug 20202,533
Jul 20202,554
Jun 20202,557
Mar 20202,520
Feb 20202,550
Jan 20202,500
Dec 20192,457
Nov 20192,533
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,550
Aug 20192,833
Jul 20192,933
Jun 20192,800
May 20192,733
Mar 20192,367
Feb 20192,467
Jan 20192,133
Dec 20182,133
Nov 20182,067
Oct 20182,029
Sept 20182,483
Aug 20183,133
Jul 20183,200
Jun 20183,217
May 20182,833

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2476-62-retail-kg.