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Cassava flour in Mihigo

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,104–1,826

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,123–2,012

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 22% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,104 and 1,826 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,123 and 2,012 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mihigo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 22% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,104 and 1,826 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,123 and 2,012 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,668); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,100–1,508 1,283 1,055–1,587 1,533 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,042–1,601 1,272 985–1,864 1,450 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,104–1,826 1,316 949–2,377 1,649 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,036–1,774 1,275 972–2,796 1,378 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,123–2,012 1,374 1,053–3,668 1,571 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,275
Jun 20261,583
May 20261,644
Apr 20261,525
Mar 20261,377
Feb 20261,226
Jan 20261,240
Dec 20251,042
Nov 2025987
Oct 20251,103
Sept 20251,241
Aug 20251,200
Jul 20251,641
Jun 20251,697
May 20251,472
Apr 20251,289
Mar 20251,450
Feb 20251,300
Jan 20251,271
Dec 20241,241
Nov 20241,387
Oct 20241,435
Sept 20242,022
Aug 20241,965
Jul 20241,950
Jun 20241,833
May 20241,681
Apr 20242,000
Mar 20241,933
Feb 20241,844
Jan 20241,850
Nov 20231,847
Oct 20231,634
Sept 20231,550
Aug 20231,550
Jul 20231,656
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,911
Apr 20231,900
Mar 20231,809
Feb 20231,469
Dec 20221,221
Nov 20221,200
Oct 20221,094
Sept 2022969
Aug 2022967
May 20221,030
Apr 20221,046
Mar 2022982
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021950
May 2021900
Apr 2021900
Mar 2021950
Feb 2021908
Jan 2021828
Dec 2020783
Nov 2020767
Sept 2020612
Aug 2020633
Jul 2020720
Jun 2020851
Mar 2020705
Feb 2020825
Jan 2020593
Dec 2019535
Oct 2019370
Aug 2019415
Jul 2019395
Jun 2019550
May 2019558
Mar 2019467
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019492
Dec 2018433
Nov 2018475
Oct 2018429
Sept 2018392
Aug 2018433
Jul 2018560
Jun 2018675
May 2018800
Nov 20171,025
Oct 20171,000
Sept 20171,000
Aug 2017975
Jul 20171,000
Jun 20171,150
May 20171,367
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,250
Jan 20171,050
Dec 2016950
Nov 2016875
Oct 2016688
Sept 2016612
Aug 2016675
Jul 2016650
Jun 2016700
May 2016770
Apr 2016762
Mar 2016788
Feb 2016762
Jan 2016740
Dec 2015600
Nov 2015547
Oct 2015392
Sept 2015338
Aug 2015395
Jul 2015479
Jun 2015488
May 2015580
Apr 2015596
Mar 2015440
Feb 2015372
Jan 2015352
Dec 2014351
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014389

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2476-74-retail-kg.