Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Maize flour in Mihigo

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,516–2,257

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,453–2,359

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,516 and 2,257 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,453 and 2,359 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mihigo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,516 and 2,257 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,453 and 2,359 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,491–1,907 1,646 1,382–1,957 2,266 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,500–2,052 1,717 1,349–2,203 2,345 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,516–2,257 1,760 1,350–2,693 2,495 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,513–2,291 1,803 1,343–2,704 2,494 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,453–2,359 1,755 1,252–2,905 2,415 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,525
Jun 20261,617
May 20261,647
Apr 20261,425
Mar 20261,647
Feb 20262,026
Jan 20262,184
Dec 20252,042
Nov 20252,083
Oct 20251,971
Sept 20251,948
Aug 20251,850
Jul 20251,787
Jun 20251,757
May 20251,513
Apr 20251,383
Mar 20251,525
Feb 20252,288
Jan 20252,788
Dec 20243,013
Nov 20242,517
Oct 20242,271
Sept 20242,194
Aug 20242,018
Jul 20241,750
Jun 20241,461
May 20241,554
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,750
Feb 20241,900
Jan 20241,900
Nov 20232,163
Oct 20232,339
Sept 20232,017
Aug 20232,075
Jul 20231,875
Jun 20231,850
May 20231,750
Apr 20231,667
Mar 20231,886
Feb 20231,888
Dec 20221,921
Nov 20221,900
Oct 20221,802
Sept 20221,754
Aug 20221,517
May 20221,123
Apr 20221,100
Mar 20221,030
Feb 20221,056
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,200
May 2021833
Apr 2021919
Mar 2021867
Feb 20211,050
Jan 20211,167
Dec 20201,167
Nov 20201,150
Sept 20201,025
Aug 2020950
Jul 2020855
Jun 2020838
Mar 2020800
Feb 20201,050
Jan 20201,270
Dec 20191,186
Oct 20191,017
Aug 2019830
Jul 2019941
Jun 2019700
May 2019717
Mar 2019700
Feb 2019750
Jan 2019833
Dec 2018817
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018757
Sept 2018692
Aug 2018692
Jul 2018680
Jun 2018642
May 2018650
Nov 20171,125
Oct 20171,217
Sept 20171,225
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,260
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,288
Mar 20171,250
Feb 20171,325
Jan 20171,400
Dec 20161,350
Nov 20161,275
Oct 20161,100
Sept 20161,000
Aug 2016905
Jul 2016820
Jun 2016700
May 2016670
Apr 2016688
Mar 2016718
Feb 2016812
Jan 2016980
Dec 2015900
Nov 2015857
Oct 2015738
Sept 2015700
Aug 2015700
Jul 2015662
Jun 2015625
May 2015610
Apr 2015596
Mar 2015510
Feb 2015534
Jan 2015725
Dec 2014737
Nov 2014684
Oct 2014689

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2476-76-retail-kg.