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Oil (vegetable) in Mihigo

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,382–19,408

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,081–20,488

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,382 and 19,408 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,081 and 20,488 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mihigo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,382 and 19,408 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,081 and 20,488 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,718); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,372–16,700 14,068 11,485–17,972 17,787 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,243–17,824 14,332 11,260–18,736 17,600 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,382–19,408 14,346 10,630–26,718 18,070 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,312–19,114 14,492 10,649–19,546 19,302 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,081–20,488 14,675 10,926–23,876 19,533 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202613,375
Jun 202613,667
May 202614,618
Apr 202614,500
Mar 202615,052
Feb 202614,907
Jan 202618,480
Dec 202516,917
Nov 202515,239
Oct 202517,294
Sept 202516,926
Aug 202517,000
Jul 202516,872
Jun 202518,200
May 202518,778
Apr 202517,314
Mar 202517,750
Feb 202516,000
Jan 202516,176
Dec 202414,931
Nov 202413,200
Oct 202410,792
Sept 202411,000
Aug 202411,375
Jul 202410,000
Jun 202410,833
May 202410,654
Apr 20249,000
Mar 20249,333
Feb 20249,278
Jan 20249,250
Nov 20239,263
Oct 20239,927
Sept 20239,583
Aug 20239,250
Jul 20239,375
Jun 20239,500
May 20239,444
Apr 20239,333
Mar 20239,044
Feb 20239,094
Dec 20229,818
Nov 20229,267
Oct 20229,365
Sept 20228,313
Aug 20228,583
May 20227,883
Apr 20228,135
Mar 20227,350
Feb 20227,219
Jan 20227,000
Oct 20214,750
May 20215,933
Apr 20215,798
Mar 20215,833
Feb 20216,000
Jan 20215,611
Dec 20204,900
Nov 20204,833
Sept 20204,825
Aug 20204,733
Jul 20204,802
Jun 20204,839
Mar 20204,750
Feb 20204,417
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,243
Nov 20194,083
Oct 20194,083
Sept 20194,083
Aug 20194,333
Jul 20194,333
Jun 20194,333
May 20194,350
Mar 20194,100
Feb 20194,500
Jan 20194,117
Dec 20184,083
Nov 20184,167
Oct 20184,271
Sept 20184,350
Aug 20184,283
Jul 20184,540
Jun 20184,467
May 20184,433

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2476-96-retail-kg.