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Food basket in Mihigo

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

24,278–35,219

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

24,475–38,741

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 26,302 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,278 and 35,219 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,475 and 38,741 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mihigo: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 26,302 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,278 and 35,219 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,475 and 38,741 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 59,184); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 24,415–30,011 26,801 23,406–31,428
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 23,789–31,365 26,764 22,640–35,175
Nov 2026
Next month		 24,278–35,219 28,371 22,485–41,568
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 23,604–35,214 27,755 22,347–48,904
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 24,475–38,741 29,310 22,896–59,184
Cost history (83 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202626,302
Jun 202630,400
May 202633,893
Apr 202633,510
Mar 202628,860
Feb 202626,620
Jan 202625,934
Dec 202523,486
Nov 202523,079
Oct 202525,806
Sept 202527,511
Aug 202526,835
Jul 202532,189
Jun 202532,231
May 202530,056
Apr 202528,274
Mar 202530,600
Feb 202527,219
Jan 202526,093
Dec 202425,598
Nov 202426,496
Oct 202426,078
Sept 202432,911
Aug 202432,156
Jul 202431,618
Jun 202430,382
May 202428,654
Apr 202431,950
Mar 202431,555
Feb 202430,373
Jan 202430,066
Nov 202331,155
Oct 202328,261
Sept 202327,095
Aug 202326,770
Jul 202327,691
Jun 202329,588
May 202331,212
Apr 202331,855
Mar 202330,878
Feb 202326,396
Dec 202221,471
Nov 202221,442
Oct 202219,538
Sept 202217,639
Aug 202217,402
May 202218,488
Apr 202218,042
Mar 202216,218
Feb 202216,708
Jan 202216,146
Oct 202115,699
May 202114,864
Apr 202114,916
Mar 202115,687
Feb 202115,113
Jan 202113,938
Dec 202013,710
Nov 202013,485
Sept 202011,637
Aug 202011,808
Jul 202012,604
Jun 202013,863
Mar 202012,563
Feb 202013,879
Jan 202010,691
Dec 201910,202
Oct 20198,118
Aug 20198,789
Jul 20198,749
Jun 201910,392
May 201910,776
Mar 20199,333
Feb 20199,652
Jan 20199,232
Dec 20188,742
Nov 20189,196
Oct 20188,574
Sept 20188,334
Aug 20189,087
Jul 201810,656
Jun 201812,000
May 201813,355

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620