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Oil (palm) in Mukenke

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,558–10,805

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,513–11,677

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,558 and 10,805 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,513 and 11,677 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mukenke: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,558 and 10,805 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,513 and 11,677 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,373); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,982–10,356 8,842 7,300–10,666 10,815 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,482–10,107 8,565 6,642–10,959 9,645 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,558–10,805 8,631 6,535–13,145 9,631 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,442–11,132 8,644 6,599–13,467 9,636 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,513–11,677 8,812 6,399–15,373 10,166 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jun 202610,250
May 20269,900
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20268,500
Feb 20268,538
Jan 20268,806
Dec 20258,794
Nov 20258,760
Oct 202510,426
Sept 202510,750
Aug 202511,500
Jul 202510,250
Jun 20259,955
May 202511,004
Apr 202510,846
Mar 20259,444
Feb 20258,134
Jan 20256,417
Dec 20245,933
Nov 20245,371
Oct 20245,485
Sept 20245,750
Aug 20246,908
Jul 20246,333
Jun 20246,255
May 20246,000
Apr 20246,350
Mar 20245,827
Feb 20245,444
Jan 20246,058
Dec 20235,467
Nov 20235,750
Oct 20236,044
Sept 20236,031
Aug 20235,859
Jul 20235,707
Jun 20235,679
May 20235,843
Apr 20235,211
Mar 20234,617
Feb 20234,429
Dec 20224,091
Nov 20224,161
Oct 20224,400
Sept 20225,125
Aug 20224,927
Jul 20224,000
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,405
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,507
Feb 20223,582
Jan 20223,762
Oct 20213,250
Jun 20212,833
Apr 20212,519
Mar 20212,500
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,490
Dec 20202,502
Nov 20202,167
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,477
Aug 20202,506
Jul 20202,565
Jun 20202,900
Mar 20202,530
Feb 20202,550
Jan 20202,700
Dec 20192,560
Nov 20192,560
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,683
Aug 20192,767
Jul 20192,640
Jun 20192,850
May 20192,500
Mar 20192,220
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,140
Dec 20182,083
Nov 20182,483
Oct 20181,950
Sept 20182,750
Aug 20182,867
Jul 20183,033
Jun 20182,883
May 20182,633

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2477-62-retail-kg.