Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Cassava flour in Mukenke

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,287–2,043

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,333–2,293

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,287 and 2,043 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,333 and 2,293 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mukenke: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,287 and 2,043 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,333 and 2,293 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,262); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,261–1,680 1,472 1,181–1,795 1,734 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,229–1,798 1,451 1,056–2,153 1,572 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,287–2,043 1,506 1,046–2,738 1,907 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,273–2,136 1,502 1,067–3,107 1,807 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,333–2,293 1,571 1,111–3,262 1,887 –
Price history (120 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,500
Jun 20261,750
May 20261,750
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,625
Feb 20261,500
Jan 20261,486
Dec 20251,206
Nov 20251,500
Oct 20251,350
Sept 20251,626
Aug 20251,700
Jul 20251,850
Jun 20251,942
May 20251,565
Apr 20251,652
Mar 20251,658
Feb 20251,668
Jan 20251,400
Dec 20241,813
Nov 20241,559
Oct 20241,559
Sept 20241,500
Aug 20241,733
Jul 20241,700
Jun 20241,781
May 20241,926
Apr 20241,925
Mar 20241,794
Feb 20241,974
Jan 20241,917
Dec 20231,789
Nov 20231,600
Oct 20231,576
Sept 20231,622
Aug 20231,728
Jul 20231,864
Jun 20232,000
May 20232,000
Apr 20231,917
Mar 20231,761
Feb 20231,647
Dec 20221,210
Nov 20221,243
Oct 20221,055
Sept 20221,079
Aug 20221,083
Jul 20221,050
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,083
Apr 20221,133
Mar 2022965
Feb 2022929
Jan 20221,081
Oct 2021750
Jun 2021833
Apr 20211,000
Mar 2021629
Feb 2021858
Jan 2021762
Dec 2020812
Nov 2020775
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020639
Aug 2020619
Jul 2020665
Jun 2020622
Mar 2020627
Feb 2020675
Jan 2020593
Dec 2019517
Oct 2019478
Aug 2019393
Jul 2019438
Jun 2019500
May 2019470
Mar 2019480
Feb 2019483
Jan 2019540
Dec 2018467
Nov 2018517
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018417
Aug 2018533
Jul 2018583
Jun 2018633
May 2018725
Jun 20171,408
May 20171,433
Apr 20171,500
Mar 20171,325
Feb 20171,300
Jan 20171,167
Dec 20161,050
Nov 2016950
Oct 2016800
Sept 2016800
Aug 2016800
Jul 2016740
Jun 2016725
May 2016700
Apr 2016700
Mar 2016742
Feb 2016800
Jan 2016700
Dec 2015700
Nov 2015513
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015550
Jun 2015579
May 2015587
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015429
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014500
Nov 2014460
Oct 2014572

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2477-74-retail-kg.