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Maize flour in Mukenke

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,895–2,607

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,731–2,691

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,895 and 2,607 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,731 and 2,691 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mukenke: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,895 and 2,607 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,731 and 2,691 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,908); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,860–2,229 1,998 1,731–2,495 2,391 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,815–2,345 2,010 1,652–2,651 2,346 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,895–2,607 2,130 1,653–3,340 2,676 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,884–2,740 2,176 1,625–3,908 2,737 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,731–2,691 2,028 1,491–3,506 2,366 –
Price history (115 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jun 20262,125
May 20262,000
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20262,000
Feb 20262,000
Jan 20262,097
Dec 20252,041
Nov 20252,085
Oct 20252,029
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20252,175
Jun 20252,004
May 20251,818
Apr 20251,923
Mar 20251,639
Feb 20252,300
Jan 20252,500
Dec 20242,733
Nov 20242,481
Oct 20242,279
Sept 20242,233
Aug 20241,892
Jul 20241,633
Jun 20241,529
May 20241,518
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,649
Feb 20241,826
Jan 20242,117
Dec 20231,978
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20232,031
Sept 20232,026
Aug 20232,000
Jul 20231,873
Jun 20231,842
May 20231,970
Apr 20231,898
Mar 20232,000
Feb 20231,883
Dec 20222,015
Nov 20221,929
Oct 20221,824
Sept 20221,725
Aug 20221,369
Jul 20221,225
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,164
Apr 20221,067
Mar 2022984
Feb 2022914
Jan 20221,175
Oct 20211,050
Jun 2021800
Apr 2021839
Mar 2021800
Feb 2021867
Jan 20211,049
Dec 20201,018
Nov 2020992
Oct 2020900
Sept 2020930
Aug 2020879
Jul 2020907
Jun 2020844
Mar 2020783
Feb 2020750
Jan 2020967
Dec 20191,300
Oct 20191,000
Aug 2019810
Jul 20191,017
Jun 2019600
May 2019640
Mar 2019640
Feb 2019767
Jan 2019830
Dec 2018783
Nov 2018767
Oct 2018700
Sept 2018683
Aug 2018708
Jul 2018700
Jun 2018708
May 2018708
Jun 20171,325
May 20171,367
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,325
Feb 20171,400
Dec 20161,300
Nov 20161,300
Oct 20161,025
Sept 2016950
Aug 2016900
Jul 2016800
Jun 2016825
May 2016860
Apr 2016825
Nov 2015700
Oct 2015700
Sept 2015700
Aug 2015660
Jul 2015625
Jun 2015600
May 2015573
Apr 2015550
Mar 2015562
Feb 2015700
Jan 2015700
Dec 2014700
Nov 2014700
Oct 2014617

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2477-76-retail-kg.