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Oil (vegetable) in Mukenke

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

15,207–20,678

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,821–22,485

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,207 and 20,678 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,821 and 22,485 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mukenke: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,207 and 20,678 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,821 and 22,485 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 32,385); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,873–19,022 16,669 13,849–21,172 18,356 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,719–20,093 16,929 13,201–24,560 18,778 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 15,207–20,678 16,952 13,747–24,054 18,918 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,225–21,684 16,661 14,025–30,445 18,682 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,821–22,485 16,688 13,273–32,385 18,576 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202618,000
Jun 202614,250
May 202616,750
Apr 202618,000
Mar 202614,750
Feb 202615,000
Jan 202616,750
Dec 202516,029
Nov 202516,062
Oct 202517,000
Sept 202517,500
Aug 202517,667
Jul 202517,650
Jun 202516,906
May 202517,611
Apr 202516,507
Mar 202516,118
Feb 202516,934
Jan 202513,000
Dec 202414,644
Nov 202414,250
Oct 202413,588
Sept 202410,630
Aug 202413,308
Jul 202412,000
Jun 202412,365
May 202410,342
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,275
Feb 20248,968
Jan 20249,417
Dec 20239,222
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20239,000
Aug 20239,718
Jul 20238,682
Jun 20239,403
May 20238,917
Apr 20238,635
Mar 20239,312
Feb 20239,260
Dec 20228,125
Nov 20229,159
Oct 20229,597
Sept 20228,958
Aug 20228,833
Jul 20228,500
Jun 20229,000
May 20227,833
Apr 20227,833
Mar 20226,483
Feb 20226,929
Jan 20227,031
Oct 20216,875
Jun 20215,833
Apr 20215,611
Mar 20215,854
Feb 20215,167
Jan 20215,328
Dec 20205,430
Nov 20205,250
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,051
Aug 20205,211
Jul 20204,969
Jun 20205,444
Mar 20204,403
Feb 20203,875
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20194,500
Nov 20194,200
Oct 20193,900
Sept 20194,250
Aug 20194,333
Jul 20194,200
Jun 20194,250
May 20194,500
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,533
Jan 20194,600
Dec 20184,167
Nov 20184,700
Oct 20184,875
Sept 20184,917
Aug 20184,800
Jul 20184,167
Jun 20184,500
May 20184,417

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2477-96-retail-kg.