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Food basket in Mukenke

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

25,793–37,450

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

25,563–42,692

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,340 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,793 and 37,450 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,563 and 42,692 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mukenke: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,340 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,793 and 37,450 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,563 and 42,692 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 59,024); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,136–32,395 29,014 24,864–33,928
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 25,361–34,002 28,761 23,608–38,961
Nov 2026
Next month		 25,793–37,450 29,615 23,350–45,702
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,596–39,474 30,209 23,322–52,194
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 25,563–42,692 30,232 22,646–59,024
Cost history (86 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202629,340
Jun 202632,348
May 202634,356
Apr 202633,210
Mar 202630,180
Feb 202627,907
Jan 202627,709
Dec 202525,038
Nov 202527,678
Oct 202527,688
Sept 202531,501
Aug 202532,535
Jul 202533,368
Jun 202533,803
May 202530,654
Apr 202531,755
Mar 202530,890
Feb 202530,134
Jan 202525,038
Dec 202432,598
Nov 202427,938
Oct 202427,859
Sept 202426,514
Aug 202429,674
Jul 202428,490
Jun 202429,119
May 202430,581
Apr 202431,172
Mar 202428,720
Feb 202430,495
Jan 202430,000
Dec 202328,159
Nov 202327,128
Oct 202327,529
Sept 202328,225
Aug 202328,838
Jul 202329,803
Jun 202331,067
May 202332,970
Apr 202332,463
Mar 202330,019
Feb 202328,050
Dec 202220,723
Nov 202221,300
Oct 202218,611
Sept 202218,899
Aug 202218,560
Jul 202217,182
May 202218,350
Apr 202219,000
Mar 202215,503
Feb 202214,965
Jan 202216,814
Oct 202113,042
Jun 202113,305
Apr 202115,328
Mar 202111,078
Feb 202113,960
Jan 202112,450
Dec 202013,526
Nov 202013,195
Oct 202012,216
Sept 202011,566
Aug 202011,276
Jul 202011,786
Jun 202011,118
Mar 202011,162
Feb 202011,524
Jan 202010,404
Dec 20199,802
Oct 20199,159
Aug 20198,218
Jul 20198,947
Jun 20199,226
May 20199,111
Mar 20198,948
Feb 20198,983
Jan 20199,325
Dec 20189,108
Nov 20189,579
Oct 20187,671
Sept 20188,413
Aug 20189,779
Jul 201810,413
Jun 201810,939
May 201811,822

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620