Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Muyange

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,008–9,977

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,981–10,196

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,008 and 9,977 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,981 and 10,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Muyange: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,008 and 9,977 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,981 and 10,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,587–9,574 8,401 7,023–10,332 9,719 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,000–9,497 8,161 6,645–10,373 8,971 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,008–9,977 8,201 6,364–12,459 9,104 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,963–10,129 8,235 6,299–11,505 9,220 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,981–10,196 8,350 5,923–11,235 9,436 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,778
Jul 20268,000
Jun 20269,333
May 20269,333
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20268,750
Feb 20268,808
Jan 20269,000
Dec 20257,250
Nov 20259,014
Oct 202510,167
Sept 20259,611
Aug 20259,691
Jul 202510,318
Jun 202510,300
May 20259,725
Apr 20259,938
Mar 20259,135
Feb 20258,375
Jan 20257,042
Dec 20246,304
Nov 20245,117
Oct 20244,942
Sept 20245,383
Aug 20246,083
Jul 20246,088
Jun 20246,667
May 20245,592
Apr 20245,500
Mar 20245,451
Feb 20245,313
Jan 20244,789
Dec 20235,667
Nov 20235,250
Oct 20235,381
Sept 20235,915
Aug 20236,083
Jul 20235,944
Jun 20235,653
May 20235,295
Apr 20234,750
Mar 20234,796
Feb 20234,303
Dec 20224,079
Nov 20223,820
Oct 20224,088
Sept 20224,510
Aug 20224,206
Jul 20224,400
May 20224,460
Apr 20223,900
Mar 20223,278
Feb 20223,288
Jan 20223,150
Oct 20213,000
May 20212,500
Apr 20212,461
Mar 20212,456
Feb 20212,258
Jan 20212,158
Dec 20202,050
Nov 20202,022
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20202,000
Aug 20202,027
Jul 20202,094
Jun 20202,356
Mar 20202,144
Feb 20202,180
Jan 20202,000
Dec 20192,160
Nov 20192,300
Oct 20192,017
Sept 20192,033
Aug 20192,500
Jul 20192,733
Jun 20193,000
May 20192,683
Mar 20195,450Data error
Feb 20192,183
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20181,850
Nov 20181,840
Oct 20181,683
Sept 20182,229
Aug 20182,920
Jul 20182,900
Jun 20183,000
May 20182,783

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2478-62-retail-kg.