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Cassava flour in Muyange

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,553–2,223

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,580–2,352

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,553 and 2,223 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,580 and 2,352 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Muyange: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,553 and 2,223 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,580 and 2,352 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,600–2,005 1,746 1,489–2,084 2,017 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,592–2,103 1,781 1,489–2,172 2,003 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,553–2,223 1,764 1,468–2,363 2,169 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,575–2,296 1,778 1,485–2,528 2,224 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,580–2,352 1,803 1,440–2,930 2,082 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,726
Jul 20261,700
Jun 20261,792
May 20261,967
Apr 20261,950
Mar 20261,967
Feb 20262,162
Jan 20262,133
Dec 20252,100
Nov 20251,974
Oct 20251,912
Sept 20251,844
Aug 20251,712
Jul 20251,809
Jun 20251,766
May 20251,953
Apr 20252,188
Mar 20251,746
Feb 20251,625
Jan 20251,740
Dec 20241,939
Nov 20241,833
Oct 20241,773
Sept 20241,572
Aug 20241,946
Jul 20241,835
Jun 20241,833
May 20241,833
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,955
Feb 20241,945
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20231,967
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20231,998
Sept 20231,949
Aug 20231,861
Jul 20231,911
Jun 20231,703
May 20231,800
Apr 20231,933
Mar 20231,951
Feb 20231,912
Dec 20221,500
Nov 20221,430
Oct 20221,285
Sept 20221,246
Aug 20221,221
Jul 20221,200
May 20221,223
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,178
Feb 20221,231
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,000
May 2021900
Apr 2021881
Mar 2021867
Feb 2021883
Jan 2021967
Dec 2020950
Nov 2020783
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020800
Aug 2020793
Jul 2020806
Jun 2020844
Mar 2020722
Feb 2020740
Jan 2020900
Dec 2019800
Oct 2019759
Aug 2019714
Jul 2019750
Jun 2019633
May 2019717
Mar 2019750
Feb 2019575
Jan 2019767
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018820
Oct 2018883
Sept 2018807
Aug 2018860
Jul 2018917
Jun 2018892
May 2018950
Aug 20171,267
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,250
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,260
Feb 20171,250
Dec 20161,120
Nov 2016967
Oct 2016900
Sept 2016850
Aug 2016775
Jul 2016700
Jun 2016700
May 2016775
Apr 2016700
Mar 2016704
Feb 2016700
Jan 2016705
Dec 2015692
Nov 2015662
Oct 2015597
Sept 2015593
Aug 2015636
Jul 2015631
Jun 2015718
May 2015615
Apr 2015688
Mar 2015645
Feb 2015686
Jan 2015693
Dec 2014690
Nov 2014750
Oct 2014866

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2478-74-retail-kg.