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Oil (vegetable) in Muyange

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,928–22,014

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,381–22,907

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,928 and 22,014 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,381 and 22,907 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Muyange: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,928 and 22,014 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,381 and 22,907 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model
  • Not yet confirmed: a big move in the latest month, judged when next month is published

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,811–18,856 15,832 13,109–19,853 19,230 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,566–20,212 16,213 12,918–20,755 19,658 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,928–22,014 16,464 12,403–25,435 20,153 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,768–22,385 16,413 12,461–24,401 20,064 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,381–22,907 16,519 11,756–27,977 20,776 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,259Not yet confirmed
Jul 20268,000Data error
Jun 202618,083
May 202618,278
Apr 202619,000
Mar 202617,458
Feb 202616,923
Jan 202617,333
Dec 202515,500
Nov 202516,783
Oct 202518,412
Sept 202518,000
Aug 202518,559
Jul 202518,409
Jun 202517,200
May 202518,039
Apr 202517,542
Mar 202516,688
Feb 202516,179
Jan 202515,840
Dec 202415,022
Nov 202413,500
Oct 202413,300
Sept 202412,500
Aug 202413,292
Jul 202412,088
Jun 202411,500
May 202410,333
Apr 202410,000
Mar 20249,706
Feb 20249,824
Jan 20249,889
Dec 202310,417
Nov 20239,500
Oct 20239,078
Sept 20239,808
Aug 202310,083
Jul 20239,611
Jun 20239,861
May 20239,725
Apr 202310,167
Mar 202310,048
Feb 20238,719
Dec 20229,576
Nov 202210,350
Oct 20229,854
Sept 20229,781
Aug 20229,554
Jul 20229,000
May 202210,022
Apr 202210,333
Mar 20228,926
Feb 20228,594
Jan 20228,000
Oct 20216,667
May 20215,750
Apr 20215,546
Mar 20215,667
Feb 20215,742
Jan 20215,333
Dec 20204,333
Nov 20204,861
Oct 20204,500
Sept 20203,843
Aug 20204,992
Jul 20204,833
Jun 20205,222
Mar 20204,750
Feb 20204,300
Jan 20203,833
Dec 20193,940
Nov 20193,850
Oct 20193,517
Sept 20193,667
Aug 20193,717
Jul 20193,900
Jun 20192,967
May 20194,333
Mar 20194,333
Feb 20194,767
Jan 20194,383
Dec 20184,750
Nov 20184,660
Oct 20184,833
Sept 20184,600
Aug 20184,440
Jul 20184,117
Jun 20184,667
May 20184,750

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2478-96-retail-kg.