Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Rumonge

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,131–9,632

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,904–9,955

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,131 and 9,632 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,904 and 9,955 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Rumonge: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,131 and 9,632 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,904 and 9,955 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,234–9,019 7,941 6,617–9,437 8,594 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,161–9,382 8,062 6,704–9,996 8,993 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,131–9,632 7,864 6,107–11,458 8,826 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,012–9,792 7,846 5,911–11,845 8,785 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,904–9,955 7,919 5,698–11,848 8,753 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,500
Jul 20268,500
Jun 20268,719
May 20269,000
Apr 20268,917
Mar 20268,900
Feb 20268,365
Jan 20269,019
Dec 20258,500
Nov 20259,389
Oct 20258,941
Sept 20258,516
Aug 20259,000
Jul 20259,038
Jun 20259,348
May 20258,518
Apr 20258,899
Mar 20256,762
Feb 20256,367
Jan 20255,540
Dec 20245,340
Nov 20246,004
Oct 20245,843
Sept 20245,562
Aug 20245,288
Jul 20245,527
Jun 20245,234
May 20245,708
Apr 20245,436
Mar 20244,690
Feb 20244,913
Jan 20245,198
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20234,874
Oct 20234,791
Sept 20235,296
Aug 20235,462
Jul 20235,045
Jun 20235,500
May 20234,375
Apr 20233,938
Mar 20233,868
Feb 20233,650
Dec 20223,500
Nov 20223,545
Oct 20224,430
Sept 20223,146
Aug 20224,583
Jun 20224,500
May 20223,843
Apr 20223,600
Mar 20223,250
Feb 20223,000
Jan 20223,000
May 20212,200
Apr 20212,365
Mar 20212,050
Feb 20212,344
Jan 20212,142
Dec 20202,208
Nov 20201,992
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20201,850
Aug 20201,720
Jul 20201,887
Jun 20202,300
Mar 20202,167
Feb 20202,250
Jan 20202,000
Dec 20191,858
Nov 20192,017
Oct 20192,167
Sept 20192,433
Aug 20192,483
Jul 20192,600
Jun 20192,367
May 20192,483
Mar 20192,350
Feb 20192,233
Jan 20191,900
Dec 20182,033
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20181,950
Sept 20181,920
Aug 20183,133
Jul 20183,125
Jun 20182,750
May 20182,520

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2479-62-retail-kg.