Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (vegetable) in Rumonge

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,666–20,384

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,194–20,480

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,666 and 20,384 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,194 and 20,480 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Rumonge: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,666 and 20,384 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,194 and 20,480 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,234–18,589 16,682 13,789–18,972 17,979 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,191–19,839 16,970 13,967–20,922 18,938 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,666–20,384 17,042 13,666–22,697 19,869 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,624–20,718 17,026 13,483–21,300 20,437 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,194–20,480 17,068 12,991–21,621 19,946 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,417
Jul 202619,000
Jun 202616,156
May 202616,912
Apr 202616,250
Mar 202617,700
Feb 202618,460
Jan 202619,577
Dec 202518,167
Nov 202519,639
Oct 202520,042
Sept 202519,120
Aug 202518,500
Jul 202518,577
Jun 202519,277
May 202519,280
Apr 202518,808
Mar 202517,778
Feb 202516,383
Jan 202514,258
Dec 202415,420
Nov 202416,083
Oct 202412,559
Sept 202412,375
Aug 202411,765
Jul 202410,573
Jun 202410,281
May 202410,198
Apr 20248,972
Mar 202411,000
Feb 202410,530
Jan 20249,562
Dec 20231,600Data error
Nov 20238,158
Oct 20238,485
Sept 20238,777
Aug 20238,000
Jul 20237,682
Jun 20239,000
May 20237,750
Apr 20238,969
Mar 20236,632
Feb 20238,250
Dec 20228,000
Nov 20227,978
Oct 20228,460
Sept 20227,771
Aug 20227,167
Jun 20229,000
May 20228,025
Apr 20228,167
Mar 20227,900
Feb 20227,900
Jan 20226,400
May 20215,000
Apr 20215,389
Mar 20215,292
Feb 20214,961
Jan 20214,950
Dec 20205,117
Nov 20205,333
Oct 20204,250
Sept 20202,991
Aug 20203,920
Jul 20204,901
Jun 20204,900
Mar 20204,174
Feb 20204,175
Jan 20204,583
Dec 20194,633
Nov 20193,850
Oct 20194,467
Sept 20194,667
Aug 20194,350
Jul 20194,517
Jun 20194,333
May 20194,667
Mar 20194,467
Feb 20194,750
Jan 20194,400
Dec 20184,250
Nov 20184,833
Oct 20184,250
Sept 20184,500
Aug 20185,583
Jul 20184,500
Jun 20184,917
May 20184,667

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2479-96-retail-kg.