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Oil (palm) in Twinkwavu

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,635–10,606

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,618–11,164

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,635 and 10,606 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,618 and 11,164 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Twinkwavu: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,635 and 10,606 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,618 and 11,164 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,171–10,250 8,910 7,601–10,998 10,090 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,744–10,077 8,550 7,218–11,460 9,456 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,635–10,606 8,605 7,059–13,414 9,156 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,621–10,738 8,628 6,831–12,382 9,235 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,618–11,164 8,895 6,710–14,721 9,650 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202610,000
Aug 20269,059
Jul 20269,500
Jun 20269,772
May 202610,333
Apr 202610,333
Mar 20268,711
Feb 202610,393
Jan 202610,221
Dec 20259,475
Nov 202510,115
Oct 20258,931
Sept 202511,902
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,000
Jun 202511,300
May 202510,147
Apr 202510,353
Mar 20259,302
Feb 20257,369
Jan 20257,000
Dec 20246,166
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,496
Aug 20246,523
Jul 20245,900
Jun 20245,852
May 20245,400
Apr 20245,125
Mar 20245,181
Feb 20245,185
Jan 20245,075
Dec 20234,867
Nov 20234,867
Oct 20235,988
Sept 20236,274
Aug 20236,142
Jul 20235,783
Jun 20235,367
May 20235,383
Apr 20234,778
Mar 20234,712
Feb 20234,522
Jan 20234,500
Dec 20224,400
Nov 20224,099
Oct 20223,993
Sept 20224,497
Aug 20224,944
Jun 20226,500
May 20224,560
Apr 20224,083
Mar 20223,717
Feb 20224,213
Jan 20223,625
Oct 20214,000
Sept 20214,278
May 20213,100
Apr 20213,048
Mar 20213,019
Feb 20212,750
Jan 20212,917
Dec 20202,789
Nov 20202,650
Sept 20202,725
Aug 20202,624
Jul 20202,781
Jun 20202,925
Mar 20202,667
Feb 20202,817
Jan 20202,800
Dec 20192,680
Nov 20192,733
Oct 20192,667
Sept 20192,620
Aug 20193,200
Jul 20193,250
Jun 20193,500
May 20193,233
Mar 20192,900
Feb 20192,467
Jan 20192,917
Dec 20182,750
Nov 20182,760
Oct 20182,643
Sept 20183,025
Aug 20183,817
Jul 20183,733
Jun 20183,600
May 20183,150

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2481-62-retail-kg.