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Cassava flour in Twinkwavu

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,081–1,717

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,126–1,915

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,081 and 1,717 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,126 and 1,915 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Twinkwavu: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,081 and 1,717 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,126 and 1,915 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,084–1,452 1,252 1,013–1,504 1,571 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,060–1,546 1,275 957–1,676 1,526 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,081–1,717 1,305 920–1,760 1,671 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,086–1,786 1,307 954–1,885 1,688 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,126–1,915 1,372 976–2,166 1,696 –
Price history (124 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,500
Aug 20261,259
Jul 20261,350
Jun 20261,439
May 20261,333
Apr 20261,417
Mar 20261,452
Feb 20261,411
Jan 20261,322
Dec 20251,190
Nov 20251,115
Oct 20251,202
Sept 20251,400
Aug 20251,550
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,561
May 20251,549
Apr 20251,521
Mar 20251,521
Feb 20251,574
Jan 20251,697
Dec 20241,736
Nov 20241,629
Oct 20241,600
Sept 20241,453
Aug 20241,554
Jul 20241,400
Jun 20241,271
May 20241,261
Apr 20241,350
Mar 20241,473
Feb 20241,500
Jan 20241,542
Dec 20231,533
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20231,541
Sept 20231,515
Aug 20231,575
Jul 20231,517
Jun 20231,467
May 20231,483
Apr 20231,475
Mar 20231,551
Feb 20231,347
Jan 20231,133
Dec 20221,033
Nov 20221,147
Oct 2022904
Sept 2022825
Aug 2022861
May 2022818
Apr 2022600
Mar 2022867
Feb 2022826
Jan 2022722
Oct 2021800
Sept 2021664
May 2021617
Apr 2021541
Mar 2021699
Feb 2021800
Jan 2021617
Dec 2020667
Nov 2020625
Sept 2020462
Aug 2020478
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020485
Mar 2020476
Feb 2020475
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019477
Oct 2019416
Aug 2019440
Jul 2019415
Jun 2019433
May 2019417
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019658
Jan 2019442
Dec 2018433
Nov 2018360
Oct 2018336
Sept 2018350
Aug 2018458
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018525
May 2018600
Sept 2017816
Jul 2017831
Jun 2017868
May 2017931
Apr 2017879
Mar 2017918
Feb 2017881
Jan 2017810
Dec 2016746
Nov 2016651
Oct 2016573
Sept 2016544
Aug 2016546
Jul 2016555
Jun 2016478
May 2016446
Apr 2016394
Mar 2016539
Feb 2016626
Jan 2016539
Dec 2015458
Nov 2015401
Oct 2015330
Sept 2015292
Aug 2015294
Jul 2015299
Jun 2015299
May 2015307
Apr 2015307
Mar 2015275
Feb 2015303
Jan 2015321
Dec 2014309
Nov 2014316
Oct 2014300
Sept 2014300

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2481-74-retail-kg.