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Maize flour in Twinkwavu

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,936–2,654

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,892–2,902

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,936 and 2,654 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,892 and 2,902 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Twinkwavu: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,936 and 2,654 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,892 and 2,902 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,860–2,396 2,079 1,741–2,559 2,699 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,863–2,521 2,102 1,710–2,642 2,758 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,936–2,654 2,127 1,719–2,914 2,974 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,958–2,786 2,216 1,735–3,345 3,185 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,892–2,902 2,197 1,653–3,399 3,120 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20262,000
May 20262,000
Apr 20261,425
Mar 20261,713
Feb 20262,464
Jan 20262,132
Dec 20252,090
Nov 20252,000
Oct 20251,863
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20251,800
Jun 20251,930
May 20252,000
Apr 20251,800
Mar 20252,044
Feb 20252,439
Jan 20252,515
Dec 20242,590
Nov 20242,420
Oct 20242,150
Sept 20242,047
Aug 20242,027
Jul 20241,900
Jun 20241,634
May 20241,671
Apr 20241,900
Mar 20241,924
Feb 20241,981
Jan 20241,925
Dec 20231,933
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20232,078
Sept 20232,108
Aug 20232,100
Jul 20232,050
Jun 20232,200
May 20232,000
Apr 20231,841
Mar 20232,459
Feb 20232,481
Jan 20232,400
Dec 20222,333
Nov 20222,493
Oct 20221,760
Sept 20221,903
Aug 20221,500
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,196
Apr 20221,133
Mar 20221,242
Feb 20221,300
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,200
Sept 20211,050
May 2021700
Apr 2021671
Mar 2021700
Feb 20211,000
Jan 2021925
Dec 2020900
Nov 20201,050
Sept 2020925
Aug 20201,000
Jul 20201,000
Jun 2020900
Mar 2020833
Feb 20201,267
Jan 20201,400
Dec 20191,260
Oct 2019975
Aug 2019850
Jul 2019933
Jun 2019725
May 2019700
Mar 2019738
Feb 20191,000
Jan 2019760
Dec 2018867
Nov 2018600
Oct 2018600
Sept 2018650
Aug 2018600
Jul 2018600
Jun 2018633
May 2018800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2481-76-retail-kg.