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Oil (vegetable) in Twinkwavu

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

10,838–15,047

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

10,480–15,532

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 10,838 and 15,047 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 10,480 and 15,532 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Twinkwavu: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 10,838 and 15,047 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 10,480 and 15,532 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 21,962); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 10,916–13,470 12,161 10,203–15,104 13,302 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 10,859–14,272 12,255 10,099–16,078 14,088 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 10,838–15,047 12,147 9,739–20,391 13,508 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 10,728–15,660 12,117 10,127–21,962 13,956 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 10,480–15,532 12,117 10,391–21,119 13,930 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202616,000
Aug 202612,471
Jul 202613,000
Jun 202612,913
May 202613,500
Apr 202612,400
Mar 202612,467
Feb 202611,500
Jan 202611,235
Dec 202512,000
Nov 202511,875
Oct 202511,569
Sept 202510,688
Aug 202511,500
Jul 202515,500
Jun 202511,000
May 202511,538
Apr 202512,000
Mar 202511,844
Feb 202511,036
Jan 202512,471
Dec 202411,392
Nov 202410,823
Oct 202410,500
Sept 202411,200
Aug 202410,769
Jul 20249,750
Jun 20249,047
May 20249,083
Apr 20248,500
Mar 20248,706
Feb 20248,630
Jan 20248,500
Dec 20238,500
Nov 20237,500
Oct 20238,617
Sept 20238,500
Aug 20237,875
Jul 20238,250
Jun 20238,500
May 20238,250
Apr 20238,594
Mar 20237,353
Feb 20237,438
Jan 20237,000
Dec 20227,250
Nov 20227,233
Oct 20226,750
Sept 20227,354
Aug 20227,194
Jun 20227,000
May 20226,956
Apr 20226,250
Mar 20226,917
Feb 20226,365
Jan 20226,062
Oct 20218,000
Sept 20216,500
May 20215,500
Apr 20215,031
Mar 20215,083
Feb 20215,000
Jan 20215,000
Dec 20204,583
Nov 20204,550
Sept 20204,600
Aug 20204,347
Jul 20204,631
Jun 20204,500
Mar 20204,525
Feb 20204,583
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,500
Nov 20194,500
Oct 20194,375
Sept 20194,333
Aug 20194,075
Jul 20194,350
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,375
Mar 20194,350
Feb 20194,060
Jan 20195,240
Dec 20185,333
Nov 20185,167
Oct 20184,660
Sept 20184,250
Aug 20184,375
Jul 20184,600
Jun 20184,725
May 20184,560

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2481-96-retail-kg.