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Food basket in Twinkwavu

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

24,165–34,167

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

24,473–38,310

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,461 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,165 and 34,167 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,473 and 38,310 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Twinkwavu: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,461 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,165 and 34,167 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,473 and 38,310 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 24,683–30,090 27,301 23,573–31,517
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 24,268–31,673 27,571 22,632–34,559
Nov 2026
Next month		 24,165–34,167 28,100 22,520–37,095
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 24,241–35,398 28,438 22,362–39,584
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 24,473–38,310 29,100 22,741–45,142
Cost history (88 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 202630,300
Aug 202627,461
Jul 202627,705
Jun 202628,731
May 202628,620
Apr 202630,220
Mar 202628,884
Feb 202628,998
Jan 202628,346
Dec 202525,948
Nov 202525,559
Oct 202525,549
Sept 202530,342
Aug 202532,250
Jul 202530,750
Jun 202532,604
May 202531,572
Apr 202531,664
Mar 202531,096
Feb 202529,632
Jan 202531,121
Dec 202431,859
Nov 202430,294
Oct 202429,640
Sept 202427,538
Aug 202428,492
Jul 202425,941
Jun 202424,028
May 202423,599
Apr 202424,866
Mar 202425,838
Feb 202425,711
Jan 202425,872
Dec 202326,438
Nov 202325,678
Oct 202327,685
Sept 202327,757
Aug 202328,358
Jul 202326,571
Jun 202326,043
May 202326,434
Apr 202326,969
Mar 202327,658
Feb 202324,728
Jan 202322,825
Dec 202220,956
Nov 202221,840
Oct 202217,677
Sept 202216,823
Aug 202216,775
May 202215,584
Apr 202212,898
Mar 202214,495
Feb 202214,252
Jan 202212,739
Oct 202114,520
Sept 202113,153
May 202111,399
Apr 202110,740
Mar 202112,801
Feb 202113,658
Jan 202111,018
Dec 202013,034
Nov 202013,139
Sept 202010,468
Aug 202010,242
Jul 202010,341
Jun 202010,112
Mar 20209,712
Feb 20209,714
Jan 202010,092
Dec 20199,805
Oct 20199,191
Aug 20199,520
Jul 20199,427
Jun 20199,235
May 20198,821
Mar 20199,111
Feb 201911,387
Jan 20199,503
Dec 20189,797
Nov 20188,564
Oct 20188,115
Sept 20188,245
Aug 201810,053
Jul 201810,286
Jun 201810,359
May 201810,768

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620