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Oil (palm) in Wimpfizi

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,479–11,544

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,222–12,147

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,479 and 11,544 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,222 and 12,147 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Wimpfizi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,479 and 11,544 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,222 and 12,147 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 16,283); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,682–10,717 9,585 7,990–11,756 10,107 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,150–10,871 9,373 7,798–12,637 9,558 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,479–11,544 9,432 7,404–15,136 10,166 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,403–11,843 9,448 7,844–15,933 10,238 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,222–12,147 9,551 7,114–16,283 10,384 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,250
Jul 202610,000
Jun 202611,674
May 202611,312
Apr 202610,000
Mar 202610,812
Feb 20269,968
Jan 202610,073
Dec 202510,438
Nov 202511,188
Oct 202512,302
Sept 202511,000
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,333
Jun 202511,977
May 202511,549
Apr 202511,123
Mar 202510,233
Feb 20257,650
Jan 20257,047
Dec 20246,419
Nov 20246,068
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20244,463
Aug 20246,908
Jul 20246,433
Jun 20246,375
May 20246,825
Apr 20245,800
Mar 20245,725
Feb 20245,375
Jan 20245,700
Nov 20235,000
Oct 20234,900
Sept 20235,467
Aug 20235,500
Jul 20235,500
Jun 20234,964
May 20235,512
Apr 20235,836
Mar 20235,193
Feb 20234,938
Dec 20224,552
Nov 20224,672
Oct 20224,924
Sept 20224,854
Aug 20224,989
May 20224,642
Apr 20224,300
Mar 20224,000
Feb 20223,800
Jan 20224,200
Oct 20212,400
Apr 20212,852
Mar 20212,724
Feb 20212,800
Jan 20212,733
Dec 20202,733
Nov 20202,733
Oct 20202,700
Sept 20202,800
Aug 20202,817
Jul 20202,886
Jun 20202,962
Mar 20202,933
Feb 20202,800
Jan 20202,800
Dec 20192,850
Nov 20192,914
Oct 20192,867
Sept 20192,967
Aug 20193,080
Jul 20193,067
Jun 20193,133
May 20192,900
Mar 20192,800
Feb 20192,433
Jan 20192,600
Dec 20182,650
Nov 20182,780
Oct 20182,600
Sept 20183,117
Aug 20183,733
Jul 20183,617
Jun 20183,583
May 20182,967

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2482-62-retail-kg.