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Cassava flour in Wimpfizi

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,232–1,998

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,263–2,185

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,232 and 1,998 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,263 and 2,185 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Wimpfizi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,232 and 1,998 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,263 and 2,185 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,585); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,283–1,682 1,441 1,205–1,752 1,575 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,220–1,765 1,447 1,124–2,167 1,492 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,232–1,998 1,471 1,139–2,602 1,891 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,212–2,105 1,476 1,077–3,585 1,680 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,263–2,185 1,504 1,090–3,396 1,717 –
Price history (120 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,400
Jul 20261,800
Jun 20261,557
May 20261,550
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,512
Feb 20261,573
Jan 20261,515
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,533
Oct 20251,646
Sept 20251,506
Aug 20251,567
Jul 20251,533
Jun 20251,709
May 20251,541
Apr 20251,523
Mar 20251,407
Feb 20251,291
Jan 20251,425
Dec 20241,651
Nov 20241,593
Oct 20241,485
Sept 20241,457
Aug 20241,378
Jul 20241,617
Jun 20241,608
May 20241,842
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,779
Feb 20241,819
Jan 20241,817
Nov 20231,700
Oct 20231,500
Sept 20231,633
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20231,600
Jun 20231,882
May 20231,835
Apr 20231,934
Mar 20232,010
Feb 20231,716
Dec 20221,305
Nov 20221,162
Oct 20221,010
Sept 20221,040
Aug 20221,017
May 20221,049
Apr 20221,033
Mar 2022988
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021900
Apr 2021892
Mar 2021881
Feb 2021917
Jan 2021867
Dec 2020829
Nov 2020792
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020606
Aug 2020553
Jul 2020575
Jun 2020706
Mar 2020579
Feb 2020592
Jan 2020539
Dec 2019561
Oct 2019468
Aug 2019476
Jul 2019512
Jun 2019600
May 2019600
Mar 2019592
Feb 2019558
Jan 2019583
Dec 2018567
Nov 2018570
Oct 2018533
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018537
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018775
May 2018867
Nov 20171,144
Aug 20171,081
Jun 20171,240
May 20171,328
Apr 20171,309
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,293
Jan 20171,167
Dec 20161,084
Nov 2016981
Oct 2016820
Sept 2016766
Aug 2016805
Jul 2016750
Jun 2016665
May 2016691
Apr 2016790
Mar 2016778
Feb 2016890
Jan 2016809
Dec 2015685
Nov 2015644
Oct 2015494
Sept 2015433
Aug 2015439
Jul 2015431
Jun 2015507
May 2015518
Apr 2015575
Mar 2015579
Feb 2015460
Jan 2015502
Dec 2014519
Nov 2014509
Oct 2014530
Sept 2014480

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2482-74-retail-kg.