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Food basket in Wimpfizi

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,393–37,548

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,484–43,679

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,372 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,393 and 37,548 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,484 and 43,679 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Wimpfizi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,372 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,393 and 37,548 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,484 and 43,679 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 64,950); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,629–32,060 28,833 25,461–33,396
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,175–33,892 29,330 24,692–38,690
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,393–37,548 30,025 24,891–46,068
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,998–39,888 30,340 24,165–55,406
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,484–43,679 30,902 24,283–64,950
Cost history (84 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202628,372
Jul 202633,900
Jun 202631,878
May 202633,538
Apr 202632,400
Mar 202630,223
Feb 202630,451
Jan 202629,337
Dec 202529,098
Nov 202530,735
Oct 202532,883
Sept 202529,523
Aug 202531,280
Jul 202530,240
Jun 202532,357
May 202531,136
Apr 202531,160
Mar 202529,401
Feb 202526,663
Jan 202528,170
Dec 202430,547
Nov 202428,854
Oct 202427,217
Sept 202425,485
Aug 202425,702
Jul 202427,739
Jun 202427,509
May 202431,759
Apr 202430,612
Mar 202430,730
Feb 202430,742
Jan 202430,743
Nov 202328,710
Oct 202325,971
Sept 202327,812
Aug 202327,225
Jul 202326,595
Jun 202329,214
May 202330,527
Apr 202333,508
Mar 202333,839
Feb 202328,843
Dec 202222,668
Nov 202220,740
Oct 202218,602
Sept 202218,208
Aug 202217,842
May 202218,630
Apr 202218,067
Mar 202216,725
Feb 202216,602
Jan 202217,418
Oct 202114,616
Apr 202115,527
Mar 202114,959
Feb 202115,602
Jan 202115,076
Dec 202014,836
Nov 202014,356
Oct 202011,763
Sept 202011,614
Aug 202010,676
Jul 202010,775
Jun 202012,169
Mar 202011,171
Feb 202011,252
Jan 202010,454
Dec 201910,649
Oct 20199,304
Aug 20199,318
Jul 20199,885
Jun 201910,712
May 201911,106
Mar 201911,222
Feb 201910,224
Jan 201911,134
Dec 201810,909
Nov 201810,918
Oct 201810,234
Sept 20189,950
Aug 201810,531
Jul 201811,766
Jun 201813,332
May 201814,457

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620