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Oil (palm) in Biyorwa

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,858–12,581

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,928–13,971

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,858 and 12,581 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,928 and 13,971 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Biyorwa: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,858 and 12,581 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,928 and 13,971 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 17,942); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,316–11,993 10,467 9,089–12,678 13,124 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,902–12,297 10,157 8,642–15,346 12,228 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,858–12,581 10,034 8,448–16,861 11,424 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 9,193–13,711 10,473 8,357–17,942 12,666 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,928–13,971 10,522 8,595–16,302 13,209 –
Price history (66 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,250
Jun 202610,438
May 202610,167
Apr 202610,000
Mar 202610,622
Feb 202610,642
Jan 202611,439
Dec 202510,604
Nov 202510,300
Oct 202511,294
Sept 202511,239
Aug 202511,667
Jul 202511,000
Jun 202511,076
May 202512,265
Apr 202510,674
Mar 202510,050
Feb 20258,988
Jan 20257,637
Dec 20247,000
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,281
Sept 20246,625
Aug 20247,255
Jul 20246,333
Jun 20246,062
May 20247,229
Apr 20246,238
Mar 20246,103
Feb 20245,611
Jan 20246,433
Dec 20236,500
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20236,062
Sept 20236,302
Aug 20236,000
Jul 20236,000
Jun 20235,598
May 20235,380
Apr 20235,000
Mar 20235,167
Feb 20235,263
Jan 20236,000
Dec 20224,682
Nov 20224,382
Oct 20224,781
Sept 20225,717
Aug 20225,100
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,738
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,900
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20224,000
Oct 20214,000
Apr 20213,000
Mar 20213,000
Feb 20213,400
Jan 20213,100
Dec 20203,600
Nov 20202,988
Oct 20203,200
Sept 20203,620
Aug 20202,978
Jul 20202,958
Jun 20203,300

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3045-62-retail-kg.