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Cassava flour in Biyorwa

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,601–2,869

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,602–3,379

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,601 and 2,869 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,602 and 3,379 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Biyorwa: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,601 and 2,869 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,602 and 3,379 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,443); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,648–2,187 1,895 1,462–2,765 2,418 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,536–2,418 1,877 1,382–3,611 2,232 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,601–2,869 1,933 1,377–5,220 2,642 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,536–3,065 1,923 1,382–7,167 2,601 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,602–3,379 1,990 1,410–7,443 2,767 –
Price history (66 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,825
Jun 20261,900
May 20261,883
Apr 20261,575
Mar 20261,519
Feb 20261,783
Jan 20261,876
Dec 20251,746
Nov 20251,658
Oct 20251,344
Sept 20251,683
Aug 20251,833
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20251,743
May 20251,738
Apr 20251,778
Mar 20251,880
Feb 20251,792
Jan 20251,698
Dec 20241,724
Nov 20242,019
Oct 20242,031
Sept 20242,100
Aug 20242,012
Jul 20241,900
Jun 20241,912
May 20242,000
Apr 20242,044
Mar 20242,138
Feb 20242,083
Jan 20242,033
Dec 20232,200
Nov 20232,200
Oct 20232,000
Sept 20232,093
Aug 20232,200
Jul 20232,000
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,970
Apr 20231,775
Mar 20232,000
Feb 20231,584
Jan 20231,400
Dec 20221,321
Nov 20221,300
Oct 20221,056
Sept 20221,030
Aug 20221,085
Jun 20221,100
May 20221,056
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,050
Jan 20221,167
Oct 2021800
Apr 20211,000
Mar 2021875
Feb 2021800
Jan 2021950
Dec 2020754
Nov 2020744
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020600
Aug 2020483
Jul 2020600
Jun 2020575

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3045-74-retail-kg.