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Maize flour in Biyorwa

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,566–2,354

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,513–2,339

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,566 and 2,354 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,513 and 2,339 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Biyorwa: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,566 and 2,354 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,513 and 2,339 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,543–2,029 1,736 1,403–2,208 2,608 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,515–2,149 1,769 1,315–2,280 2,644 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,566–2,354 1,821 1,351–2,515 2,829 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,540–2,362 1,775 1,316–2,685 2,991 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,513–2,339 1,764 1,211–2,355 2,985 –
Price history (60 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,600
Jun 20261,775
May 20261,500
Apr 20261,550
Mar 20262,000
Feb 20262,108
Jan 20262,397
Dec 20252,217
Nov 20251,877
Oct 20251,958
Sept 20251,800
Jul 20251,800
Jun 20251,709
May 20251,792
Apr 20251,620
Mar 20251,640
Feb 20252,114
Jan 20252,431
Dec 20242,618
Nov 20242,600
Oct 20242,035
Sept 20242,050
Aug 20242,000
Jul 20241,912
Jun 20241,800
May 20241,800
Apr 20241,950
Mar 20242,000
Feb 20242,097
Jan 20242,100
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20232,000
Sept 20232,000
Jul 20231,700
Jun 20231,832
May 20231,660
Apr 20231,625
Mar 20231,600
Feb 20231,550
Dec 20221,400
Nov 20221,400
Oct 20221,466
Sept 20221,437
Aug 20221,300
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,044
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,200
Jan 20221,267
Oct 20211,100
Apr 2021800
Mar 2021800
Jan 2021850
Nov 2020875
Oct 2020750
Sept 2020750
Aug 2020700
Jul 2020671
Jun 2020700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3045-76-retail-kg.