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Food basket in Biyorwa

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

31,568–48,114

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

31,829–58,284

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 33,562 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 31,568 and 48,114 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 31,829 and 58,284 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Biyorwa: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 33,562 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 31,568 and 48,114 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 31,829 and 58,284 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,00080,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 110,671); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 32,141–39,883 35,091 29,796–46,871
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 30,723–42,526 34,837 28,747–56,890
Nov 2026
Next month		 31,568–48,114 36,327 28,926–75,229
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 31,327–52,815 36,804 29,098–89,877
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 31,829–58,284 37,672 29,685–110,671
Cost history (65 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202633,562
Jun 202634,187
May 202636,215
Apr 202631,875
Mar 202630,956
Feb 202633,471
Jan 202635,734
Dec 202532,954
Nov 202531,268
Oct 202528,608
Sept 202532,411
Aug 202534,250
Jul 202535,370
Jun 202532,501
May 202534,589
Apr 202533,181
Mar 202534,868
Feb 202532,873
Jan 202531,290
Dec 202431,759
Nov 202433,939
Oct 202434,012
Sept 202434,631
Aug 202433,665
Jul 202431,325
Jun 202431,369
May 202433,192
Apr 202434,313
Mar 202435,270
Feb 202433,677
Jan 202433,279
Dec 202335,385
Nov 202335,100
Oct 202333,234
Sept 202333,968
Aug 202334,680
Jul 202331,920
Jun 202329,248
May 202331,942
Apr 202330,645
Mar 202333,145
Feb 202327,592
Jan 202325,260
Dec 202223,121
Nov 202223,325
Oct 202218,809
Sept 202218,877
Aug 202218,951
May 202218,419
Apr 202217,460
Mar 202217,871
Feb 202216,980
Jan 202218,440
Oct 202114,160
Apr 202116,770
Mar 202114,955
Feb 202114,646
Jan 202115,834
Dec 202014,216
Nov 202014,181
Oct 202011,838
Sept 202011,813
Aug 202010,135
Jul 202011,154
Jun 202010,684

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620