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Oil (palm) in Giharo

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,925–12,796

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,699–14,659

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,925 and 12,796 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,699 and 14,659 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Giharo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,925 and 12,796 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,699 and 14,659 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,665–12,887 10,813 8,973–14,908 13,544 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,963–12,610 10,531 8,703–14,594 12,968 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,925–12,796 10,478 7,637–14,347 12,537 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,766–12,791 10,380 7,369–13,567 12,025 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,699–14,659 10,930 7,593–17,557 12,819 –
Price history (61 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,250
Jul 202610,250
Jun 202611,620
May 202612,167
Apr 20269,750
Mar 20269,975
Feb 202610,667
Jan 202610,745
Dec 20259,839
Nov 202512,000
Oct 202511,157
Sept 202511,710
Aug 202511,900
Jul 202511,480
Jun 202511,969
May 202510,765
Apr 202510,188
Mar 20259,771
Feb 20258,198
Jan 20257,069
Dec 20246,312
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,000
Aug 20246,721
Jul 20246,618
Jun 20246,750
May 20246,441
Apr 20246,944
Mar 20245,875
Feb 20246,050
Jan 20245,659
Dec 20235,500
Oct 20236,167
Sept 20236,705
Aug 20235,846
Jul 20235,900
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,650
Apr 20234,625
Mar 20234,956
Feb 20234,000
Dec 20224,000
Nov 20224,175
Oct 20224,667
Sept 20225,104
Aug 20225,750
May 20224,260
Apr 20224,333
Mar 20223,892
Feb 20224,000
Apr 20212,500
Mar 20212,500
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,500
Dec 20202,500
Nov 20202,500
Sept 20202,575
Aug 20202,583
Jul 20202,500
Jun 20202,533

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3046-62-retail-kg.