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Cassava flour in Giharo

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,188–2,024

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,204–2,431

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,188 and 2,024 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,204 and 2,431 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Giharo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,188 and 2,024 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,204 and 2,431 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,520); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,206–1,782 1,468 1,072–2,166 1,790 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,200–1,868 1,471 1,019–2,602 1,808 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,188–2,024 1,451 1,038–3,190 1,699 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,242–2,346 1,564 1,141–3,520 2,319 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,204–2,431 1,521 1,118–3,425 2,112 –
Price history (61 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,450
Jul 20261,250
Jun 20261,387
May 20261,383
Apr 20261,750
Mar 20261,570
Feb 20261,500
Jan 20261,539
Dec 20251,290
Nov 20251,025
Oct 20251,309
Sept 20251,272
Aug 20251,530
Jul 20251,524
Jun 20251,496
May 20251,194
Apr 20251,341
Mar 20251,354
Feb 20251,181
Jan 20251,498
Dec 20241,653
Nov 20241,550
Oct 20241,300
Sept 20241,500
Aug 20241,344
Jul 20241,265
Jun 20241,250
May 20241,338
Apr 20241,628
Mar 20241,175
Feb 20242,059
Jan 20241,900
Dec 20232,000
Oct 20231,542
Sept 20231,403
Aug 20231,338
Jul 20231,197
Jun 20231,336
May 20231,715
Apr 2023981
Mar 20231,303
Feb 20231,200
Dec 20221,105
Nov 20221,130
Oct 2022648
Sept 2022808
Aug 2022500
May 2022773
Apr 2022933
Mar 2022812
Feb 20221,000
Apr 2021618
Mar 2021755
Feb 2021600
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020750
Nov 2020425
Sept 2020448
Aug 2020483
Jul 2020457
Jun 2020483

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3046-74-retail-kg.