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Oil (vegetable) in Giharo

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,934–19,174

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,163–20,492

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,934 and 19,174 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,163 and 20,492 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Giharo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,934 and 19,174 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,163 and 20,492 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,523); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,487–17,605 15,080 12,614–18,271 19,174 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,629–17,794 14,541 11,594–21,252 17,336 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,934–19,174 14,905 10,417–26,189 17,701 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,839–19,263 14,724 10,811–26,523 17,739 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,163–20,492 15,703 12,236–22,301 20,695 –
Price history (61 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,000
Jul 202614,000
Jun 202615,065
May 202615,167
Apr 202617,500
Mar 202615,950
Feb 202616,476
Jan 202616,078
Dec 202515,677
Nov 202516,531
Oct 202517,392
Sept 202516,275
Aug 202517,600
Jul 202516,882
Jun 202516,052
May 202514,765
Apr 202515,031
Mar 202515,417
Feb 202512,604
Jan 202513,843
Dec 202410,969
Nov 202410,000
Oct 202410,000
Sept 202412,000
Aug 20249,544
Jul 20249,721
Jun 20247,556
May 20249,500
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20248,625
Feb 20249,902
Jan 202410,235
Dec 202310,000
Oct 20237,500
Sept 20238,308
Aug 20238,769
Jul 20238,383
Jun 20235,727
May 20234,725
Apr 20235,312
Mar 20237,353
Feb 20237,000
Dec 20225,023
Nov 20225,850
Oct 20226,833
Sept 20227,854
Aug 20227,250
May 20226,823
Apr 20227,333
Mar 20227,308
Feb 20226,500
Apr 20215,000
Mar 20215,000
Feb 20215,000
Jan 20215,000
Dec 20205,000
Nov 20205,000
Sept 20205,000
Aug 20204,833
Jul 20204,750
Jun 20205,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3046-96-retail-kg.