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Food basket in Giharo

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,579–39,416

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,353–46,296

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,872 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,579 and 39,416 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,353 and 46,296 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Giharo: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,872 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,579 and 39,416 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,353 and 46,296 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 58,962); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,017–35,488 31,248 26,334–39,655
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 27,363–36,944 31,547 25,023–45,802
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,579–39,416 31,854 25,530–53,747
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,772–43,871 33,023 25,931–58,962
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,353–46,296 33,044 25,428–57,496
Cost history (61 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202629,872
Jul 202627,922
Jun 202629,525
May 202632,495
Apr 202633,578
Mar 202631,078
Feb 202630,889
Jan 202631,655
Dec 202527,760
Nov 202526,571
Oct 202528,698
Sept 202528,637
Aug 202531,188
Jul 202530,931
Jun 202530,905
May 202526,072
Apr 202528,348
Mar 202528,549
Feb 202524,939
Jan 202528,704
Dec 202430,983
Nov 202429,760
Oct 202426,040
Sept 202427,180
Aug 202425,627
Jul 202424,296
Jun 202423,918
May 202425,077
Apr 202430,675
Mar 202423,284
Feb 202433,468
Jan 202431,162
Dec 202332,475
Oct 202327,263
Sept 202325,985
Aug 202324,415
Jul 202322,331
Jun 202322,876
May 202329,888
Apr 202320,704
Mar 202324,058
Feb 202321,660
Dec 202220,318
Nov 202220,716
Oct 202214,565
Sept 202216,424
Aug 202212,578
May 202214,735
Apr 202216,710
Mar 202214,155
Feb 202216,200
Apr 202111,483
Mar 202113,125
Feb 202110,965
Jan 202110,065
Dec 202013,965
Nov 20209,975
Sept 20209,424
Aug 20209,742
Jul 20209,208
Jun 20209,168

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620