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Oil (palm) in Burambi

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,336–11,538

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,122–12,175

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,336 and 11,538 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,122 and 12,175 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Burambi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,336 and 11,538 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,122 and 12,175 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 17,235); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,190–10,330 8,416 6,428–10,748 8,718 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,385–11,190 8,842 6,457–13,257 10,148 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,336–11,538 8,801 6,577–14,088 9,691 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,302–12,139 8,869 6,175–17,235 10,192 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,122–12,175 8,778 5,597–16,423 10,312 –
Price history (64 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,667
Jun 20269,750
May 20269,317
Apr 20269,000
Mar 202621,239Data error
Feb 20267,762
Jan 20269,353
Dec 20259,479
Nov 20259,583
Oct 20259,031
Sept 20259,272
Aug 202510,000
Jul 202510,333
Jun 20259,328
May 20259,475
Apr 20257,750
Mar 20256,882
Feb 20256,479
Jan 20255,606
Dec 20245,483
Nov 20244,020
Oct 20245,000
Sept 20242,888
Aug 20245,909
Jul 20245,003
Jun 20245,300
May 20244,333
Apr 20245,400
Mar 20244,500
Feb 20243,200
Jan 20244,083
Dec 20235,500
Nov 20234,407
Oct 20234,608
Sept 20233,488
Aug 20234,446
Jul 20235,200
Jun 20234,400
May 20233,575
Apr 20233,648
Mar 20233,898
Feb 20233,196
Jan 20232,500
Dec 20222,664
Nov 20223,485
Oct 20223,875
Sept 20223,769
Aug 20223,800
May 20223,500
Apr 20223,500
Mar 20222,767
Feb 20223,300
Jan 20223,350
Apr 20212,023
Mar 20212,223
Feb 20212,433
Jan 20212,058
Dec 20201,758
Nov 20201,758
Oct 20201,625
Sept 20201,742
Aug 20202,395
Jul 20202,379
Jun 20202,178

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-3047-62-retail-kg.