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Maize in Kati

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

193–273

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

183–276

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 193 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 183 and 276 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Kati: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 193 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 183 and 276 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 211–250 224 197–280 292 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 200–263 224 185–316 294 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 193–273 222 189–362 288 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 189–264 223 179–304 275 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 183–276 220 163–320 268 –
Price history (142 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026225
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025244
Oct 2025238
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025255
Jul 2025275
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025275
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025263
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024338
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024275
Jun 2024260
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024225
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023255
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022325
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022325
May 2022315
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022269
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021238
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021212
Mar 2021206
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020195
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019175
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018206
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018215
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018181
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017193
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017186
Apr 2017180
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016199
Oct 2016199
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016190
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015183
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015204
Jun 2015196
May 2015183
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015167
Feb 2015181
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014192
Nov 2014188
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014190
Jul 2014188
Jun 2014200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1682-51-retail-kg.