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Rice (imported) in Kati

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

408–504

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

401–527

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 408 and 504 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 401 and 527 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Kati: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 408 and 504 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 401 and 527 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 429–484 448 405–511 500 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 420–496 449 387–528 502 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 408–504 450 331–539 506 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 404–520 450 339–591 501 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 401–527 447 350–622 514 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025450
Jul 2025450
Jun 2025450
May 2025450
Apr 2025450
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025475
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024525
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024450
Jun 2024450
May 2024500
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022438
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022375
Dec 2021375
Nov 2021375
Oct 2021350
Sept 2021350
Aug 2021350
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021350
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021350
Feb 2021350
Jan 2021350
Dec 2020350
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020350
Sept 2020350
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019300
Jul 2019300
Jun 2019300
May 2019312
Apr 2019350
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018350
Jun 2018350
May 2018375
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017350
May 2017375
Apr 2017355
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015350
May 2015386
Apr 2015350
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014350
Jun 2014350

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1682-64-retail-kg.