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Sorghum in Kati

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

196–282

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

175–302

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 175 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kati: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 175 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 221–263 232 177–276 328 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 208–269 233 165–307 322 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 196–282 232 146–349 322 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 180–290 230 132–340 303 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 175–302 228 129–358 295 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026230
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025269
Aug 2025280
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024325
Jun 2024285
May 2024275
Apr 2024275
Mar 2024275
Jan 2024275
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023305
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022338
Oct 2022405
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022413
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022370
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022300
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021238
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020181
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019188
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018256
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018275
Jul 2018255
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017231
Jul 2017205
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016180
Mar 2016188
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015196
Nov 2015199
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015201
Mar 2015192
Feb 2015194
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014210
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1682-65-retail-kg.