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Rice (local) in Kati

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

472–549

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

450–570

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 472 and 549 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 450 and 570 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kati: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 472 and 549 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 450 and 570 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 487–532 499 463–576 568 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 479–541 500 465–582 567 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 472–549 501 408–593 567 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 458–575 500 378–693 565 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 450–570 496 394–659 567 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025538
Aug 2025550
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025580
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024575
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024540
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023490
Jun 2023525
May 2023550
Apr 2023550
Mar 2023550
Feb 2023550
Dec 2022525
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022550
Sept 2022531
Aug 2022475
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022440
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021425
Sept 2021425
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018437
Jul 2018425
Jun 2018425
May 2018412
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017405
Sept 2017412
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016394
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016386
Jun 2016400
May 2016380
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015406
May 2015378
Apr 2015380
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015369
Jan 2015375
Dec 2014367
Nov 2014375
Oct 2014375
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014375
Jul 2014375
Jun 2014375

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1682-71-retail-kg.