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Millet in Kati

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 42% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

186–351

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

175–356

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 42% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 32% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 186 and 351 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 175 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kati: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 42% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 32% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 186 and 351 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 175 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 195–313 221 185–360 370 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 191–341 221 179–367 369 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 186–351 221 164–387 384 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 178–361 218 166–443 365 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 175–356 215 158–441 347 –
Price history (142 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026275
Jun 2026275
May 2026295
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025319
Aug 2025325
Jul 2025312
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025350
Dec 2024390
Nov 2024425
Oct 2024425
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024320
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024275
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023315
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023325
Jul 2023320
Jun 2023313
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022390
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022325
Feb 2022306
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021263
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021219
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021225
Dec 2020225
Nov 2020230
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020210
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019206
Apr 2019218
Mar 2019218
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017275
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017275
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017268
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017238
Apr 2017215
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016213
Nov 2016225
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015210
Nov 2015196
Oct 2015229
Aug 2015226
Jul 2015221
Jun 2015229
May 2015204
Apr 2015232
Mar 2015222
Feb 2015244
Jan 2015225
Dec 2014242
Nov 2014244
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014245
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014250

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1682-73-retail-kg.