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Food basket in Kati

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,230–4,209

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,100–4,270

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,230 and 4,209 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,100 and 4,270 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kati: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,230 and 4,209 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,100 and 4,270 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,345–3,757 2,648 2,215–4,319
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,287–4,097 2,655 2,148–4,401
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,230–4,209 2,657 1,963–4,638
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,139–4,333 2,610 1,991–5,311
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,100–4,270 2,576 1,893–5,293
Cost history (142 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,400
Jul 20263,300
Jun 20263,300
May 20263,540
Apr 20263,600
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20263,600
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,828
Aug 20253,900
Jul 20253,750
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,200
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,200
Dec 20244,680
Nov 20245,100
Oct 20245,100
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,500
Jun 20243,840
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,300
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,780
Sept 20233,900
Aug 20233,900
Jul 20233,840
Jun 20233,756
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Dec 20224,200
Nov 20225,100
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,100
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,680
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20223,900
Feb 20223,672
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,156
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,400
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,628
Feb 20212,700
Jan 20212,700
Dec 20202,700
Nov 20202,760
Oct 20202,700
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,520
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,472
Apr 20192,616
Mar 20192,616
Feb 20192,700
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20182,700
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,300
Nov 20173,300
Oct 20173,300
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,216
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20172,856
Apr 20172,580
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,556
Nov 20162,700
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,520
Nov 20152,352
Oct 20152,748
Aug 20152,712
Jul 20152,652
Jun 20152,748
May 20152,448
Apr 20152,784
Mar 20152,664
Feb 20152,928
Jan 20152,700
Dec 20142,904
Nov 20142,928
Oct 20143,000
Sept 20143,000
Aug 20142,940
Jul 20143,000
Jun 20143,000

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189