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Maize in Kouremalé

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

176–253

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–257

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 253 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Kouremalé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 253 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 193–234 206 179–252 295 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 182–245 206 164–280 299 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 176–253 205 171–282 295 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 165–258 203 151–319 268 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–257 200 129–305 254 –
Price history (116 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026205
Jun 2026205
May 2026205
Apr 2026205
Mar 2026205
Feb 2026205
Jan 2026205
Dec 2025221
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025259
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025259
Dec 2024285
Nov 2024290
Oct 2024295
Sept 2024295
Aug 2024295
Jul 2024295
Jun 2024295
May 2024295
Apr 2024295
Mar 2024295
Jan 2024295
Nov 2023313
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023275
Feb 2023275
Dec 2022288
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022380
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022333
May 2022285
Apr 2022250
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021271
Nov 2021295
Oct 2021267
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021231
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021180
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020194
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020225
Mar 2020230
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020166
Dec 2019200
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017225
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017238
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016219
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016230
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015217
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015213
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1812-51-retail-kg.